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Chart of the Day – EUR/JPY
February 23rd, 2010 at 3:28pm(Chart courtesy of FX Solutions' FX AccuCharts. Price on 1st pane, Slow Stochastics on 2nd pane; horizontal support/resistance levels in yellow; uptrend lines in green; downtrend lines in red; chart patterns in white; 50-period simple moving average in light blue.) 2/23/2010 – EUR/JPY – Price action on EUR/JPY, a daily chart of which is shown, has been entrenched in a relatively strong downtrend since the mid-January highs. In the process of this downtrend, several key support levels have been
(Chart courtesy of FX Solutions' FX AccuCharts. Price on 1st pane, Slow Stochastics on 2nd pane; horizontal support/resistance levels in yellow; uptrend lines in green; downtrend lines in red; chart patterns in white; 50-period simple moving average in light blue.) 2/23/2010 – EUR/JPY – Price action on EUR/JPY, a daily chart of which is shown, has been entrenched in a relatively strong downtrend since the mid-January highs. In the process of this downtrend, several key support levels have been
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Stocks Called Lower; Traders Await Housing, Consumer Confidence
February 23rd, 2010 at 2:44pmU.S. equity markets are expected to open lower as risk sentiment wanes a little following a drop in the Euro. Investors appear to be taking risk off the table over concerns about debt issues in Europe and a slow down in the U.S. economy.? Traders will be focusing on the Case-Shiller Housing and Consumer Confidence Reports for direction. Investors are also uncertain about the Fed’s next interest rate play now that they have raised the discount rate. The great debate remains, will they or
U.S. equity markets are expected to open lower as risk sentiment wanes a little following a drop in the Euro. Investors appear to be taking risk off the table over concerns about debt issues in Europe and a slow down in the U.S. economy.? Traders will be focusing on the Case-Shiller Housing and Consumer Confidence Reports for direction. Investors are also uncertain about the Fed’s next interest rate play now that they have raised the discount rate. The great debate remains, will they or
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U.S. Dollar Up; Investors Scaling Back Appetite for Risk
February 23rd, 2010 at 2:41pmThe U.S. Dollar is trading higher against all major currencies except the Japanese Yen as risk sentiment has shifted back toward safety.? Investors are buying the Dollar and the Yen as they scale back their appetite for more risky investments. ? Today, U.S. traders will focus on the S&P Case-Shiller HPI and Consumer Confidence Reports. Economists are predicting that home prices probably declined at the slowest pace since May 2007. The Consumer Confidence Report could show a
The U.S. Dollar is trading higher against all major currencies except the Japanese Yen as risk sentiment has shifted back toward safety.? Investors are buying the Dollar and the Yen as they scale back their appetite for more risky investments. ? Today, U.S. traders will focus on the S&P Case-Shiller HPI and Consumer Confidence Reports. Economists are predicting that home prices probably declined at the slowest pace since May 2007. The Consumer Confidence Report could show a
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Currency Majors Technical Perspective
February 23rd, 2010 at 2:39pmEUR/USD Current price: 1.3558 Pair set a fresh intraday low after first US data, and holds close to daily low, supporting further falls during next session. Hourly charts show pair is breaking consolidation range to the downside, while momentum remains bearish despite losing some strength. 4 hours charts support the bias, as current candle cross upside down 20 SMA now at 1.3585 area, and immediate resistance level to watch. Support levels: 1.3530 1.3490 1.3440 Resistance levels: 1.3585 1.63610
EUR/USD Current price: 1.3558 Pair set a fresh intraday low after first US data, and holds close to daily low, supporting further falls during next session. Hourly charts show pair is breaking consolidation range to the downside, while momentum remains bearish despite losing some strength. 4 hours charts support the bias, as current candle cross upside down 20 SMA now at 1.3585 area, and immediate resistance level to watch. Support levels: 1.3530 1.3490 1.3440 Resistance levels: 1.3585 1.63610
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GBPUSD: Bears Reassert Their Dominance
February 23rd, 2010 at 1:15pmHIGHLIGHTS: GBPUSD: Bears Reassert Their Dominance - The pair’s recovery initiated off its 2010 low at 1.5343 lost upside momentum today after hitting an intraday high of 1.5574. … GBPUSD GBPUSD: Bears Reassert Their Dominance. GBPUSD: The pair’s recovery initiated off its 2010 low at 1.5343 lost upside momentum today after hitting an intraday high of 1.5574. The GBP is now seen threatening to weaken further towards the 1.5343 level which also represents its hammer low. On a clearance of that
HIGHLIGHTS: GBPUSD: Bears Reassert Their Dominance - The pair’s recovery initiated off its 2010 low at 1.5343 lost upside momentum today after hitting an intraday high of 1.5574. … GBPUSD GBPUSD: Bears Reassert Their Dominance. GBPUSD: The pair’s recovery initiated off its 2010 low at 1.5343 lost upside momentum today after hitting an intraday high of 1.5574. The GBP is now seen threatening to weaken further towards the 1.5343 level which also represents its hammer low. On a clearance of that
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FX Thoughts for the Day
February 23rd, 2010 at 11:53amUSD-CHF @ 1.0815/18...Might rise towards 1.0850-80 once again R: 1.0837 / 1.0883 / 1.0940 S: 1.0750 / 1.0700 / 1.0650-30 The Support at 1.07 held and Swiss has risen sharply during the day. It is now trading just above 1.08 and is heading towards 1.0850-80 as expected. The 100-Week-MA (1.0837), which is the immediate Resistance seen which might be broken and the 21-Month-MA (1.0883) Resistance might be tested in the US session today. The current upside momentum is expected to continue and we
USD-CHF @ 1.0815/18...Might rise towards 1.0850-80 once again R: 1.0837 / 1.0883 / 1.0940 S: 1.0750 / 1.0700 / 1.0650-30 The Support at 1.07 held and Swiss has risen sharply during the day. It is now trading just above 1.08 and is heading towards 1.0850-80 as expected. The 100-Week-MA (1.0837), which is the immediate Resistance seen which might be broken and the 21-Month-MA (1.0883) Resistance might be tested in the US session today. The current upside momentum is expected to continue and we
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S&P futures above the 1103 resistance level this morning and printing a high of 1110 so far
February 23rd, 2010 at 11:11amMarket Comment S&P futures above the 1103 resistance level this morning and printing a high of 1110 so far. The risk appetite is back in full force as Nikkei closed up 2,74% this morning. The Shanghai index closed down by 0,49% on the first day of session since the Lunar New Year holiday. The turnaround during Friday and overnight confirms that the discount rate hike is by no means signals that the Fed will raise the Fed Funds rate anytime soon and we totally agree. The Discount rate hike
Market Comment S&P futures above the 1103 resistance level this morning and printing a high of 1110 so far. The risk appetite is back in full force as Nikkei closed up 2,74% this morning. The Shanghai index closed down by 0,49% on the first day of session since the Lunar New Year holiday. The turnaround during Friday and overnight confirms that the discount rate hike is by no means signals that the Fed will raise the Fed Funds rate anytime soon and we totally agree. The Discount rate hike
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EUR/GBP: Current level-0,8807
February 23rd, 2010 at 11:03amEUR/GBP February 23, 2010 Current level-0,8807 Longer term bias remains bearish for the pair, the retreat from resistance and break below minor bullish trendline leaves open space for a retest of 0,8600 support. Intraday: the pair appears to be strong enough to challenge 0,8850s during todays session. A break above would target 0,8900 level. Below watch for 0,8750/80 support.
EUR/GBP February 23, 2010 Current level-0,8807 Longer term bias remains bearish for the pair, the retreat from resistance and break below minor bullish trendline leaves open space for a retest of 0,8600 support. Intraday: the pair appears to be strong enough to challenge 0,8850s during todays session. A break above would target 0,8900 level. Below watch for 0,8750/80 support.
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The Dollar gained slightly versus the higher yielding assets
February 23rd, 2010 at 10:45amDaily Review 23/2/2010 USD Dollar (USD) – The Dollar gained slightly versus the higher yielding assets weakening versus the Yen after a tight range trading day. NASDAQ and Dow Jones declined by -0.08% and -0.18% respectively, posting their first loss in 5 trading sessions. Crude Oil gained by 0.44% closing at 80.16$ a barrel. Gold (XAU) weakened by -0.78% closing at 1,112.6$ an ounce. Today, CB Consumer Confidence is expected lower with 55 versus 55.9 prior. FOMC Member Bullard will speak in
Daily Review 23/2/2010 USD Dollar (USD) – The Dollar gained slightly versus the higher yielding assets weakening versus the Yen after a tight range trading day. NASDAQ and Dow Jones declined by -0.08% and -0.18% respectively, posting their first loss in 5 trading sessions. Crude Oil gained by 0.44% closing at 80.16$ a barrel. Gold (XAU) weakened by -0.78% closing at 1,112.6$ an ounce. Today, CB Consumer Confidence is expected lower with 55 versus 55.9 prior. FOMC Member Bullard will speak in
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Forex Technical Analysis on Majors
February 23rd, 2010 at 10:28amEUR/USD Current level-1.3678 EUR/USD is in a downtrend, after peaking at 1.5146 (Nov.25,2009). Technical indicators are neutral, and trading is situated below the 50- and 200-Day SMA, currently projected at 1.4793 and 1.4169. ?? The third leg of the consolidation pattern above 1.3443 is on the run and we expect it to be limited below 1.3724 dynamic resistance, before deeper drowning towards 1.3060. Sell trigger on the downside is 1.3570 and minor intraday support is seen at 1.3650.
EUR/USD Current level-1.3678 EUR/USD is in a downtrend, after peaking at 1.5146 (Nov.25,2009). Technical indicators are neutral, and trading is situated below the 50- and 200-Day SMA, currently projected at 1.4793 and 1.4169. ?? The third leg of the consolidation pattern above 1.3443 is on the run and we expect it to be limited below 1.3724 dynamic resistance, before deeper drowning towards 1.3060. Sell trigger on the downside is 1.3570 and minor intraday support is seen at 1.3650.
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CHF
February 23rd, 2010 at 9:34amComment: The bounce that started in December has carried on for longer, and taken prices higher, than we had allowed for. Open interest is now less than half 2006-2008’s peak, suggesting many have given up on the Swiss franc. Nevertheless it is still clearly corrective taking an A, B, C-type format, and appears to have stalled last week. This follows three consecutive weeks of slightly higher highs inside a ‘wedge’ formation. Last week’s ‘doji’ and ‘spike high’ at 1.0900 lies just under
Comment: The bounce that started in December has carried on for longer, and taken prices higher, than we had allowed for. Open interest is now less than half 2006-2008’s peak, suggesting many have given up on the Swiss franc. Nevertheless it is still clearly corrective taking an A, B, C-type format, and appears to have stalled last week. This follows three consecutive weeks of slightly higher highs inside a ‘wedge’ formation. Last week’s ‘doji’ and ‘spike high’ at 1.0900 lies just under
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Consolidating...
February 23rd, 2010 at 9:20amIt's important for markets to consolidate a strong move whether that move was higher or lower. When you get a quick move up such as we had, you get some very overbought short-term 60-minute oscillators. These short-term charts tend to being to unwind their oscillators fairly quickly once they get oversold or overbought. This last move up caused some very elevated MACD's, stochastics and RSI's. The inevitable move lower had to come and today we saw a drop of that take place late in the day.
It's important for markets to consolidate a strong move whether that move was higher or lower. When you get a quick move up such as we had, you get some very overbought short-term 60-minute oscillators. These short-term charts tend to being to unwind their oscillators fairly quickly once they get oversold or overbought. This last move up caused some very elevated MACD's, stochastics and RSI's. The inevitable move lower had to come and today we saw a drop of that take place late in the day.
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Financial Trend Analysis Strategy: Long EURUSD
February 23rd, 2010 at 9:18amThe trading strategies are based exclusively on technical analysis and are short term with a maximum time horizon of 3 to 5 days. The philosophy behind the Today's Trading Signals (TTS) is to take low risk, high return positions with tight stops. That means Financial Trend Analysis (FTA) focus the most on placing the right stops. Every morning FTA reviews the market and the specific strategy, recalculates the risk/reward and then determines the strategy regardless of previous strategy in the
The trading strategies are based exclusively on technical analysis and are short term with a maximum time horizon of 3 to 5 days. The philosophy behind the Today's Trading Signals (TTS) is to take low risk, high return positions with tight stops. That means Financial Trend Analysis (FTA) focus the most on placing the right stops. Every morning FTA reviews the market and the specific strategy, recalculates the risk/reward and then determines the strategy regardless of previous strategy in the
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The EUR/CHF traded near an 11-month low
February 23rd, 2010 at 9:05amGood morning from Hamburg and welcome to our Daily FX Report. Today we expect interesting economic data regarding the U.K. and U.S. home sales while ongoing speculations related to Greece’s debt problem strain the EUR. However, we wish you a successful trading day Market review The EUR/CHF traded near an 11-month low as the International Monetary Fund confirmed earlier reports that a staff member was send to Athens which caused further speculation that Greece’s fiscal problem will worsen. The
Good morning from Hamburg and welcome to our Daily FX Report. Today we expect interesting economic data regarding the U.K. and U.S. home sales while ongoing speculations related to Greece’s debt problem strain the EUR. However, we wish you a successful trading day Market review The EUR/CHF traded near an 11-month low as the International Monetary Fund confirmed earlier reports that a staff member was send to Athens which caused further speculation that Greece’s fiscal problem will worsen. The
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EURUSD bulls initiated recovery
February 23rd, 2010 at 7:40amSupport level is broken, bulls have strong potential to reach resistance level at the moment. Just above resistance barrier, negative trend is broken. Waiting action with buying opportunities are on a table for now.
Support level is broken, bulls have strong potential to reach resistance level at the moment. Just above resistance barrier, negative trend is broken. Waiting action with buying opportunities are on a table for now.
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Rate Balance in Euro
February 23rd, 2010 at 7:34amEUR The estimated test of key supports has been confirmed with condition for implementation of the pre-planned buying positions. OsMA trend indicator, having marked preserved bearish party priority, suggests holding of open long positions with the targets of 1,3660/80, 1,3720/40 and (or) further break-out variant up to 1,3780/1,3800, 1,3840/60, 1,3900/20. The alternative for sales will be below 1,3540 with the targets of 1,3480/1,3500, 1,3420/40. ? CHF The estimated test of key resistance
EUR The estimated test of key supports has been confirmed with condition for implementation of the pre-planned buying positions. OsMA trend indicator, having marked preserved bearish party priority, suggests holding of open long positions with the targets of 1,3660/80, 1,3720/40 and (or) further break-out variant up to 1,3780/1,3800, 1,3840/60, 1,3900/20. The alternative for sales will be below 1,3540 with the targets of 1,3480/1,3500, 1,3420/40. ? CHF The estimated test of key resistance
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EUR: Strategy remains unchanged: buy at 1.3625
February 23rd, 2010 at 7:31amEUR Comment: When media headlines includes phrases like: ‘the worst is still to come’, one ought to be thinking ‘crowded trade’. Above average futures volume so far this year backs this up. The Euro bounced from Friday’s low at 1.3443 and is currently hovering at the 9-day moving average. The Euro is somewhat oversold still and we shall watch for short-covering this week. Strategy: Strategy remains unchanged: buy at 1.3625; stop below 1.3400. Add to longs on a sustained break above 1.3655 for
EUR Comment: When media headlines includes phrases like: ‘the worst is still to come’, one ought to be thinking ‘crowded trade’. Above average futures volume so far this year backs this up. The Euro bounced from Friday’s low at 1.3443 and is currently hovering at the 9-day moving average. The Euro is somewhat oversold still and we shall watch for short-covering this week. Strategy: Strategy remains unchanged: buy at 1.3625; stop below 1.3400. Add to longs on a sustained break above 1.3655 for
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Currency Majors Technical Perspective
February 23rd, 2010 at 7:03amEURUSD Current Price: 1.3627
EURUSD Current Price: 1.3627
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EUR/USD: (1.3630) New reaction low on Fed's move
February 23rd, 2010 at 6:38amNew reaction low on Fed’s move but pair currently back in the daily channel off 1.5142 (bottom at 1.3561 today) and bullish engulfing last Friday: Support area at 1.3589/ .3574 (today’s low?/ current week low + break-up hourly), with next levels at 1.3534 (break-up hourly), ahead of 1.3491/ .3483 (daily envelope bottom/ reaction low hourly), where pause favored. If wrong, next levels at 1.3455/ .3443 (daily Bollinger bottom/ reaction low off 1.5145) and 1.3405 (61.8% 2008 low to 1.5145): tough
New reaction low on Fed’s move but pair currently back in the daily channel off 1.5142 (bottom at 1.3561 today) and bullish engulfing last Friday: Support area at 1.3589/ .3574 (today’s low?/ current week low + break-up hourly), with next levels at 1.3534 (break-up hourly), ahead of 1.3491/ .3483 (daily envelope bottom/ reaction low hourly), where pause favored. If wrong, next levels at 1.3455/ .3443 (daily Bollinger bottom/ reaction low off 1.5145) and 1.3405 (61.8% 2008 low to 1.5145): tough
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EURUSD, GBPUSD & USDJPY Support & Resistance Analysis
February 23rd, 2010 at 6:28amPivotfarm.com is a provider of Technical Analysis data sheets for traders of various markets. Our data considers some of the most widely followed methodologies including Market Profile, Fibonacci, Volume Analysis, Calculated Pivots and most importantly price based Support and Resistance (S&R). We have combined all these methodologies in a confluence matrix. This allows the trader to determine the strength and importance of an S&R level; based upon the levels other market participants
Pivotfarm.com is a provider of Technical Analysis data sheets for traders of various markets. Our data considers some of the most widely followed methodologies including Market Profile, Fibonacci, Volume Analysis, Calculated Pivots and most importantly price based Support and Resistance (S&R). We have combined all these methodologies in a confluence matrix. This allows the trader to determine the strength and importance of an S&R level; based upon the levels other market participants
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Daily Forex and Dow Jones Recommended Levels
February 23rd, 2010 at 6:23amSeveral words about the EUR/USD future. Resistance (daily close) : ?1.3182, 1.3364, 1.3590 and 1.3778. After that 1.3958, 1.4186 and 1.4400. Break of the latter will give ?1.4490, 1.4692 ? 1.4884. Then 1.5117, 1.5386 , 1.5592 ? 1.5660. Break of 1.5660 would lead to ?1.5865, 1.7280 ? 1.9430 (published on 23.10.2008) . Support (daily close) : 1.2610, 1.2428 and 1.2246. Then 1.2128, 1.1970, 1.1838 and 1.1700. Break of the latter would give 1.1533, 1.1352 and 1.1181 (published ? n
Several words about the EUR/USD future. Resistance (daily close) : ?1.3182, 1.3364, 1.3590 and 1.3778. After that 1.3958, 1.4186 and 1.4400. Break of the latter will give ?1.4490, 1.4692 ? 1.4884. Then 1.5117, 1.5386 , 1.5592 ? 1.5660. Break of 1.5660 would lead to ?1.5865, 1.7280 ? 1.9430 (published on 23.10.2008) . Support (daily close) : 1.2610, 1.2428 and 1.2246. Then 1.2128, 1.1970, 1.1838 and 1.1700. Break of the latter would give 1.1533, 1.1352 and 1.1181 (published ? n
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EURUSD formed a cycle bottom at 1.3443
February 23rd, 2010 at 1:54amEURUSD had formed a short term cycle bottom at 1.3443 level on 4-hour chart. Another bounce to test 1.3838 key resistance is expected later today. As long as this level holds, the price action from 1.3585 is treated as consolidation of downtrend from 1.4579, and one more fall towards 1.3400 area is still possible. However, a break above 1.3838 resistance will indicate that the downward movement from 1.4579 has completed at 1.3443 already, then further rally could be seen to 1.4000 or even
EURUSD had formed a short term cycle bottom at 1.3443 level on 4-hour chart. Another bounce to test 1.3838 key resistance is expected later today. As long as this level holds, the price action from 1.3585 is treated as consolidation of downtrend from 1.4579, and one more fall towards 1.3400 area is still possible. However, a break above 1.3838 resistance will indicate that the downward movement from 1.4579 has completed at 1.3443 already, then further rally could be seen to 1.4000 or even
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Dollar Finishes Mixed in Lifeless Trade; Bernanke Key to Direction
February 23rd, 2010 at 12:11amToday was a relatively flat day for most commodities and stocks. The inability of the Dollar to pick a direction helped to pressure gold, crude oil and stock indices. ? The way the March Treasury Notes and March Treasury Bonds traded, one would expect Bernanke say something later this week about future rate hikes. On Monday, Treasury futures finished lower in a slow trade. ? The U.S. Dollar traded mixed in a tight and narrow range. The trade weighted Dollar Index finished slightly
Today was a relatively flat day for most commodities and stocks. The inability of the Dollar to pick a direction helped to pressure gold, crude oil and stock indices. ? The way the March Treasury Notes and March Treasury Bonds traded, one would expect Bernanke say something later this week about future rate hikes. On Monday, Treasury futures finished lower in a slow trade. ? The U.S. Dollar traded mixed in a tight and narrow range. The trade weighted Dollar Index finished slightly
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Currency Majors Technical Perspective
February 22nd, 2010 at 11:45pmEUR/USD Current price: 1.3601 Lower but still in range, pair has been range bound since past Asian opening, as investors wait for further cues from US economy later this week. Dollar has managed however to end the day with some winnings against Euro, that remains week as market await for a resolution to Greece’s fiscal problems. Regional stocks markets have no cues from Wall Street that closed slightly negative, breaking the winning streak from past week. Technically, hourly charts show pair
EUR/USD Current price: 1.3601 Lower but still in range, pair has been range bound since past Asian opening, as investors wait for further cues from US economy later this week. Dollar has managed however to end the day with some winnings against Euro, that remains week as market await for a resolution to Greece’s fiscal problems. Regional stocks markets have no cues from Wall Street that closed slightly negative, breaking the winning streak from past week. Technically, hourly charts show pair
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Dollar Finishes Mixed in Dull Trade
February 22nd, 2010 at 11:23pmThe U.S. Dollar traded mixed in a tight and narrow range. The trade weighted Dollar Index finished slightly lower after confirming last Friday’s closing price reversal top. ? The lack of major U.S. economic reports on Monday helped hold the Forex markets in a tight range as investors awaited testimony later in the week from Fed Chairman Bernanke. His comments should move the markets especially if they come after a few days of range bound, directionless trading. His testimony before the
The U.S. Dollar traded mixed in a tight and narrow range. The trade weighted Dollar Index finished slightly lower after confirming last Friday’s closing price reversal top. ? The lack of major U.S. economic reports on Monday helped hold the Forex markets in a tight range as investors awaited testimony later in the week from Fed Chairman Bernanke. His comments should move the markets especially if they come after a few days of range bound, directionless trading. His testimony before the
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Week 8 0f 2010 (Feb 22 – Feb 26)
February 22nd, 2010 at 9:28pmUSDJPY ? The current technical studies suggest that USDJPY is looking to take a dip in weekly charts after touching and important level at 91.70 and we might see USDJPY just holding up around 91.00 level a bit and then resume downward trend. Break of 91.00 level will set 90.15 as next target for this week and we might see USDJPY touching that level.
USDJPY ? The current technical studies suggest that USDJPY is looking to take a dip in weekly charts after touching and important level at 91.70 and we might see USDJPY just holding up around 91.00 level a bit and then resume downward trend. Break of 91.00 level will set 90.15 as next target for this week and we might see USDJPY touching that level.
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EURUSD building up the momentum
February 22nd, 2010 at 9:25pmEURUSD: (1.3594) EURUSD is looking to gather momentum again to make a dip towards 1.3450 level and is continuing a very good downward selling trend. Traders will be looking to sell EURUSD just around 1.3660 level for a nice move and this trade will also suit the traders trading on weekly charts. RSI has opened up quite considerably and we might therefore see an extended move by EURUSD. ? Trade: ?Sell EURUSD @ 1.3660 for Profit Level @ 1.3450 with Stop @ 1.3760
EURUSD: (1.3594) EURUSD is looking to gather momentum again to make a dip towards 1.3450 level and is continuing a very good downward selling trend. Traders will be looking to sell EURUSD just around 1.3660 level for a nice move and this trade will also suit the traders trading on weekly charts. RSI has opened up quite considerably and we might therefore see an extended move by EURUSD. ? Trade: ?Sell EURUSD @ 1.3660 for Profit Level @ 1.3450 with Stop @ 1.3760
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USD/CHF
February 22nd, 2010 at 4:41pmComment: The bounce that started in December has carried on for longer, and taken prices higher, than we had allowed for. Open interest is now less than half 2006-2008’s peak, suggesting many have given up on the Swiss franc. Nevertheless it is still clearly corrective taking an A, B, C-type format, and appears to have stalled last week. This follows three consecutive weeks of slightly higher highs inside a ‘wedge’ formation. Last week’s ‘doji’ and ‘spike high’ at 1.0900 lies just under
Comment: The bounce that started in December has carried on for longer, and taken prices higher, than we had allowed for. Open interest is now less than half 2006-2008’s peak, suggesting many have given up on the Swiss franc. Nevertheless it is still clearly corrective taking an A, B, C-type format, and appears to have stalled last week. This follows three consecutive weeks of slightly higher highs inside a ‘wedge’ formation. Last week’s ‘doji’ and ‘spike high’ at 1.0900 lies just under
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Chart of the Day – USD/CHF
February 22nd, 2010 at 4:08pm(Chart courtesy of FX Solutions' FX AccuCharts. Price on 1st pane, Slow Stochastics on 2nd pane; horizontal support/resistance levels in yellow; uptrend lines in green; downtrend lines in red; chart patterns in white; 50-period simple moving average in light blue.) 2/22/2010 – USD/CHF – Recent bullish price action since mid-January on USD/CHF, a daily chart of which is shown, has brought price up to hit a key long-term downtrend resistance line extending from the November 2008 high. When the
(Chart courtesy of FX Solutions' FX AccuCharts. Price on 1st pane, Slow Stochastics on 2nd pane; horizontal support/resistance levels in yellow; uptrend lines in green; downtrend lines in red; chart patterns in white; 50-period simple moving average in light blue.) 2/22/2010 – USD/CHF – Recent bullish price action since mid-January on USD/CHF, a daily chart of which is shown, has brought price up to hit a key long-term downtrend resistance line extending from the November 2008 high. When the
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EUR/GBP: Current level-0,8725
February 22nd, 2010 at 3:44pmEUR/GBP February 17, 2010 Current level-0,8725 Longer term bias remains bearish for the pair, the retreat from resistance and break below minor bullish trendline leaves open space for a retest of 0,8600 support. Intraday: Euro bulls found resistance close the 50% Fibonacci and above the 1 hour 200 moving average at 0,8740s. For today I'm looking for a retest of yesterdays highs.
EUR/GBP February 17, 2010 Current level-0,8725 Longer term bias remains bearish for the pair, the retreat from resistance and break below minor bullish trendline leaves open space for a retest of 0,8600 support. Intraday: Euro bulls found resistance close the 50% Fibonacci and above the 1 hour 200 moving average at 0,8740s. For today I'm looking for a retest of yesterdays highs.
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Comprehensive FX and Futures Daily Commentary
February 22nd, 2010 at 3:18pmDaily Market Commentary EUR/USD Balances After Friday’s Bounce The EUR/USD is stabilizing after Friday’s solid pop in the wake of mixed EU PMI data. Positive manufacturing from Germany gave investors a reason to hope that the EU can withstand the economic storm in the Mediterranean. However, uncertainty remains as Greece works to prove that it can successfully implement its austerity plan while Spain, Portugal, and Italy battle with their own fiscal deficits. Therefore, the EUR/USD does remain
Daily Market Commentary EUR/USD Balances After Friday’s Bounce The EUR/USD is stabilizing after Friday’s solid pop in the wake of mixed EU PMI data. Positive manufacturing from Germany gave investors a reason to hope that the EU can withstand the economic storm in the Mediterranean. However, uncertainty remains as Greece works to prove that it can successfully implement its austerity plan while Spain, Portugal, and Italy battle with their own fiscal deficits. Therefore, the EUR/USD does remain
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Currency Majors Technical Perspective
February 22nd, 2010 at 2:32pmEUR/USD Current price: 1.3620 Moving in a tight range since Asian opening, pair has attempted to break the 1.3600 support and the 1.3640 resistance area without succeeding for now. Hourly charts show flat indicators, while 20 SMA with a slightly bullish slope, yet for now, capping the upside as dynamic resistance zone. Pair needs to clearly overcome today’s high to regain the upside, while break under 1.3580 should signal further falls during next American session. Support levels: 1.3600
EUR/USD Current price: 1.3620 Moving in a tight range since Asian opening, pair has attempted to break the 1.3600 support and the 1.3640 resistance area without succeeding for now. Hourly charts show flat indicators, while 20 SMA with a slightly bullish slope, yet for now, capping the upside as dynamic resistance zone. Pair needs to clearly overcome today’s high to regain the upside, while break under 1.3580 should signal further falls during next American session. Support levels: 1.3600
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Stocks Trade in Tight Range; Investors Waiting for Bernanke to Speak
February 22nd, 2010 at 1:37pmU.S. stock indices are trading in a tight range overnight as investors await testimony before the House Financial Services Committee by Fed Chairman Bernanke. Expectations are for Bernanke to talk about the state of the employment situation as well as addressing whether more financial stimulus is required. ? Investors will be looking for clues as to if or when the Federal Reserve will begin to hike interest rates in 2010. Signs that rates will rise will likely support the Dollar which
U.S. stock indices are trading in a tight range overnight as investors await testimony before the House Financial Services Committee by Fed Chairman Bernanke. Expectations are for Bernanke to talk about the state of the employment situation as well as addressing whether more financial stimulus is required. ? Investors will be looking for clues as to if or when the Federal Reserve will begin to hike interest rates in 2010. Signs that rates will rise will likely support the Dollar which
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Dollar Trading Mixed; Euro Falters after Quick Gain
February 22nd, 2010 at 1:35pmThe U.S. Dollar is trading mixed against the majors in a tight and narrow range. The trade weighted Dollar Index is trading lower in a follow-through move following Friday’s closing price reversal top on the daily chart. The main trend is up and will not change to down unless 79.61 is violated. ? The lack of major U.S. economic reports today could keep the Forex markets in a tight range until Fed Chairman Bernanke speaks at 10 AM CT.? His comments could move the markets. Today, he is
The U.S. Dollar is trading mixed against the majors in a tight and narrow range. The trade weighted Dollar Index is trading lower in a follow-through move following Friday’s closing price reversal top on the daily chart. The main trend is up and will not change to down unless 79.61 is violated. ? The lack of major U.S. economic reports today could keep the Forex markets in a tight range until Fed Chairman Bernanke speaks at 10 AM CT.? His comments could move the markets. Today, he is
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Weekly Technical Commentary
February 22nd, 2010 at 12:20pmUSD/JPY Chart Levels: Support 91.00..90.55..89.70..89.30. Resistance 91.90..92.25..92.55..93.25. The latest rally has stalled again against ‘channel’ resistance which happens to lie at the 200-day moving average at 92.25. Though well below the weekly Ichimoku ‘cloud’, slightly worrying is that the 9 and 26-week moving averages have crossed to a buy while all other elements of this chart suggest a short position. Note that the Lagging Span encounters resistance from the candles this week, so we
USD/JPY Chart Levels: Support 91.00..90.55..89.70..89.30. Resistance 91.90..92.25..92.55..93.25. The latest rally has stalled again against ‘channel’ resistance which happens to lie at the 200-day moving average at 92.25. Though well below the weekly Ichimoku ‘cloud’, slightly worrying is that the 9 and 26-week moving averages have crossed to a buy while all other elements of this chart suggest a short position. Note that the Lagging Span encounters resistance from the candles this week, so we
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FX Thoughts for the Day
February 22nd, 2010 at 12:13pmUSD-CHF @ 1.0768/71...Support at 1.0700 R: 1.0836 / 1.0881 / 1.0940 S: 1.0700 / 1.0650-30 / 1.0600 Swiss has risen slightly from the day's low of 1.0736. The pair is not showing much strength on its downmove and if the immediate Support at 1.07 continue to hold, we might see a rise once again towards 1.0850-1.0880 in the coming sessions. As mentioned earlier the sigificant levels to watch for on the upside are 1.0836 (100-Week-MA), 1.0881 (21-Month-MA) which might be tested once again in the
USD-CHF @ 1.0768/71...Support at 1.0700 R: 1.0836 / 1.0881 / 1.0940 S: 1.0700 / 1.0650-30 / 1.0600 Swiss has risen slightly from the day's low of 1.0736. The pair is not showing much strength on its downmove and if the immediate Support at 1.07 continue to hold, we might see a rise once again towards 1.0850-1.0880 in the coming sessions. As mentioned earlier the sigificant levels to watch for on the upside are 1.0836 (100-Week-MA), 1.0881 (21-Month-MA) which might be tested once again in the
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Natural Gas Daily Technical Outlook
February 22nd, 2010 at 10:58amNymex Natural Gas (NG) Natural Gas' whole correction from 6.108 is still in progress and at this point intraday bias remains on the downside for 61.8% retracement of 4.157 to 61.08 at 4.902 and below. But downside momentum should start to diminish as natural gas approaches 100% projection of 6.108 to 5.06 from 5.68 at 4.632 to conclude the correction. On the upside, above 5.163 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral first. But risk of another fall remains as long as 5.68 resistance
Nymex Natural Gas (NG) Natural Gas' whole correction from 6.108 is still in progress and at this point intraday bias remains on the downside for 61.8% retracement of 4.157 to 61.08 at 4.902 and below. But downside momentum should start to diminish as natural gas approaches 100% projection of 6.108 to 5.06 from 5.68 at 4.632 to conclude the correction. On the upside, above 5.163 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral first. But risk of another fall remains as long as 5.68 resistance
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Market Handles Discount Rate Hike by Fed...
February 22nd, 2010 at 10:15amOn Thursday evening, just after the market closed, the market took a shot to the jaw out of left field; although you can't argue it was hinted at, when fed Bernanke raised the discount rate to banks to 0.75% from 0.50%. The market, one would think, does not want to see lending made more difficult by making lending from bank to bank more difficult. Yes, it was only 0.25% worth of BP, but a start higher nonetheless at a time when the economy is trying so hard to heal some very deep wounds.
On Thursday evening, just after the market closed, the market took a shot to the jaw out of left field; although you can't argue it was hinted at, when fed Bernanke raised the discount rate to banks to 0.75% from 0.50%. The market, one would think, does not want to see lending made more difficult by making lending from bank to bank more difficult. Yes, it was only 0.25% worth of BP, but a start higher nonetheless at a time when the economy is trying so hard to heal some very deep wounds.
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The Dollar lost against most majors
February 22nd, 2010 at 9:57amDaily Review 22/2/2010 USD Dollar (USD) – The Dollar has finished lower versus most majors after comments from Fed officials who said the change in the lending rate doesn't signal any change in the outlook for the economy or for monetary policy. CPI came out weaker with 0.2% versus 0.3% forecast, disappointing investors. NASDAQ and Dow Jones gained by 0.1% and 0.09% respectively as the Dollar weakened, finishing the week with their fourth straight gain. Crude Oil gained by 1.2% closing at
Daily Review 22/2/2010 USD Dollar (USD) – The Dollar has finished lower versus most majors after comments from Fed officials who said the change in the lending rate doesn't signal any change in the outlook for the economy or for monetary policy. CPI came out weaker with 0.2% versus 0.3% forecast, disappointing investors. NASDAQ and Dow Jones gained by 0.1% and 0.09% respectively as the Dollar weakened, finishing the week with their fourth straight gain. Crude Oil gained by 1.2% closing at
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EUR still out of favour
February 22nd, 2010 at 9:53amThe latest IMM data cover the week from 9 to 16 February. EUR/USD managed to see somewhat of a consolidation last week as the Euroland debtproblem dominated fewer headlines and risky assets posted a decent rebound. Still, noncommercialinvestors added further to short EUR positions, which have now reached a 10-year high at 30 percent of open interest. The IMM data were collected prior to the Fed hiking the discount rate however, suggestingthat short EUR positions might have been built even
The latest IMM data cover the week from 9 to 16 February. EUR/USD managed to see somewhat of a consolidation last week as the Euroland debtproblem dominated fewer headlines and risky assets posted a decent rebound. Still, noncommercialinvestors added further to short EUR positions, which have now reached a 10-year high at 30 percent of open interest. The IMM data were collected prior to the Fed hiking the discount rate however, suggestingthat short EUR positions might have been built even
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Chart of the Day – USD/JPY
February 24th, 2010 at 5:39pm(Chart courtesy of FX Solutions' FX AccuCharts. Price on 1st pane, Slow Stochastics on 2nd pane; horizontal support/resistance levels in yellow; uptrend lines in green; downtrend lines in red; chart patterns in white; 50-period simple moving average in light blue.) 2/24/2010 – USD/JPY – Price action on USD/JPY, a daily chart of which is shown, has taken a decidedly bearish turn after having reached and respected last week the top border of a key parallel downtrend channel extending from the
(Chart courtesy of FX Solutions' FX AccuCharts. Price on 1st pane, Slow Stochastics on 2nd pane; horizontal support/resistance levels in yellow; uptrend lines in green; downtrend lines in red; chart patterns in white; 50-period simple moving average in light blue.) 2/24/2010 – USD/JPY – Price action on USD/JPY, a daily chart of which is shown, has taken a decidedly bearish turn after having reached and respected last week the top border of a key parallel downtrend channel extending from the
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EURUSD gathering momentum
February 24th, 2010 at 5:24pmEURUSD: (1.3569) EURUSD took a retrace above 1.3600 level and it provided intra-day traders with a very good intra-day trade selling EURUSD opportunity. EURUSD seems to continue its downward trend and selling EURUSD just around 1.3600 level is a very good entry. The initial targets are seen around 1.3450 level and mostly traders will look to aim around that level. RSI has opened up nicely and is just above 37 and seems to have more than enough for a nice downward dip. Trade: ? Sell EURUSD
EURUSD: (1.3569) EURUSD took a retrace above 1.3600 level and it provided intra-day traders with a very good intra-day trade selling EURUSD opportunity. EURUSD seems to continue its downward trend and selling EURUSD just around 1.3600 level is a very good entry. The initial targets are seen around 1.3450 level and mostly traders will look to aim around that level. RSI has opened up nicely and is just above 37 and seems to have more than enough for a nice downward dip. Trade: ? Sell EURUSD
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Comprehensive FX and Futures Daily Commentary
February 24th, 2010 at 4:03pmDaily Market Commentary EUR/USD Balances as Investors Await Bernanke The EUR/USD is balancing above 1.35 as investors await U.S. New Home Sales data along with Bernanke’s testimony before Congress. It will be interesting to see what kind of impact the New Home Sales number has on the risk trade. With the EU still mired in fiscal worries strong home sales data could lead investors to the Dollar due to the comparative strength of the U.S. economy. However, should home sales print weak it remains
Daily Market Commentary EUR/USD Balances as Investors Await Bernanke The EUR/USD is balancing above 1.35 as investors await U.S. New Home Sales data along with Bernanke’s testimony before Congress. It will be interesting to see what kind of impact the New Home Sales number has on the risk trade. With the EU still mired in fiscal worries strong home sales data could lead investors to the Dollar due to the comparative strength of the U.S. economy. However, should home sales print weak it remains
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Volume signals to the downside opening more weakness in near term
February 24th, 2010 at 2:58pmMarket Comment S&P futures closed lower on a wide spread down bar yesterday on increased volume, which confirms the “no demand” bar from Monday. We also note the volume was declining over the previous few sessions as the price traded higher and then it rose on the sell off yesterday. This signals stronger volume was to the downside and opens for more weakness near term. Key support at 1056 and key resistance is 1128 for now. The main factor that triggered the sell off was the terribly weak
Market Comment S&P futures closed lower on a wide spread down bar yesterday on increased volume, which confirms the “no demand” bar from Monday. We also note the volume was declining over the previous few sessions as the price traded higher and then it rose on the sell off yesterday. This signals stronger volume was to the downside and opens for more weakness near term. Key support at 1056 and key resistance is 1128 for now. The main factor that triggered the sell off was the terribly weak
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Currency Majors Technical Perspective
February 24th, 2010 at 2:32pmEUR/USD Current price: 1.3545 Almost unchanged, pair remains range bound, with hourly indicators flat at this point, holding above 20 SMA that turned flat. Bigger time frames show indicators lost bearish strength yet are far from bullish signals. Pair needs to break either above 1.3610 or under 1.3530 to define a more clear intraday trend. Support levels: 1.3530 1.3490 1.3440 1.3410 Resistance levels: 1.3570 1.3610 1.3640 GBP/USD Current price: 1.5411 Bearish in the hourly, current candle
EUR/USD Current price: 1.3545 Almost unchanged, pair remains range bound, with hourly indicators flat at this point, holding above 20 SMA that turned flat. Bigger time frames show indicators lost bearish strength yet are far from bullish signals. Pair needs to break either above 1.3610 or under 1.3530 to define a more clear intraday trend. Support levels: 1.3530 1.3490 1.3440 1.3410 Resistance levels: 1.3570 1.3610 1.3640 GBP/USD Current price: 1.5411 Bearish in the hourly, current candle
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Stocks Trading Flat Ahead of Bernanke Testimony
February 24th, 2010 at 1:56pmU.S. stock indices are trading flat this morning ahead of the U.S. opening. Investors seem reluctant to take a side ahead of today’s testimony by Fed Chairman Bernanke. Today’s emphasis will be on jobs and the Fed’s exit strategy. Bernanke may be asked to explain how the Fed plans to withdraw stimulus and raise interest rates without shocking the financial markets. Dovish comments by Bernanke are likely to decrease demand for higher risk assets while putting pressure on equities. Hawkish
U.S. stock indices are trading flat this morning ahead of the U.S. opening. Investors seem reluctant to take a side ahead of today’s testimony by Fed Chairman Bernanke. Today’s emphasis will be on jobs and the Fed’s exit strategy. Bernanke may be asked to explain how the Fed plans to withdraw stimulus and raise interest rates without shocking the financial markets. Dovish comments by Bernanke are likely to decrease demand for higher risk assets while putting pressure on equities. Hawkish
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U.S. Dollar Down Slightly Ahead of Bernanke Testimony
February 24th, 2010 at 1:53pmThe U.S. Dollar is down slightly overnight against most major currencies as traders await Federal Reserve Chairman Bernanke’s semi-annual testimony before the House Committee on Financial Services. ? Bernanke will be in the hot seat this morning as he tries to convince Congress that the financial health of the economy is under control. In addition, he will try to build public confidence in the Fed’s upcoming exit strategy. Bernanke’s main job will be to explain how he is going to begin
The U.S. Dollar is down slightly overnight against most major currencies as traders await Federal Reserve Chairman Bernanke’s semi-annual testimony before the House Committee on Financial Services. ? Bernanke will be in the hot seat this morning as he tries to convince Congress that the financial health of the economy is under control. In addition, he will try to build public confidence in the Fed’s upcoming exit strategy. Bernanke’s main job will be to explain how he is going to begin
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FX Thoughts for the Day
February 24th, 2010 at 12:03pmFX Thoughts for the day : 24-Feb-2010 - 1200 GMT EURO, JAP YEN and EURO-YEN --------------------------- Read our current comments and trade recommendations on EUR-USD, USD-JPY and EUR-JPY by registering at http://www.kshitij.com/fxthoughts/fxthoughts.shtml#register Our comments on Dollar-Swiss, Sterling Pound and Australian Dollar are given below ------------------------------------------------------------- USD-CHF @ 1.0800/04...100-Week-MA Resistance holding ------------------------ R: 1.0837
FX Thoughts for the day : 24-Feb-2010 - 1200 GMT EURO, JAP YEN and EURO-YEN --------------------------- Read our current comments and trade recommendations on EUR-USD, USD-JPY and EUR-JPY by registering at http://www.kshitij.com/fxthoughts/fxthoughts.shtml#register Our comments on Dollar-Swiss, Sterling Pound and Australian Dollar are given below ------------------------------------------------------------- USD-CHF @ 1.0800/04...100-Week-MA Resistance holding ------------------------ R: 1.0837
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Forex Technical Analysis on Majors
February 24th, 2010 at 11:57amEUR/USD Current level-1.3531 EUR/USD is in a downtrend, after peaking at 1.5146 (Nov.25,2009). Technical indicators are neutral, and trading is situated below the 50- and 200-Day SMA, currently projected at 1.4793 and 1.4169. ?? Yesterday's peak at 1.3693 was the final of the consolidation pattern above 1.3443 and the pair has renewed its downtrend towards 1.3320, en route to 1.3061. Intraday resistance comes at 1.3575.
EUR/USD Current level-1.3531 EUR/USD is in a downtrend, after peaking at 1.5146 (Nov.25,2009). Technical indicators are neutral, and trading is situated below the 50- and 200-Day SMA, currently projected at 1.4793 and 1.4169. ?? Yesterday's peak at 1.3693 was the final of the consolidation pattern above 1.3443 and the pair has renewed its downtrend towards 1.3320, en route to 1.3061. Intraday resistance comes at 1.3575.
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CRUDE OIL: The 78.01/76.43 To Halt Bear Pressure
February 24th, 2010 at 11:56amIn This Issue: CRUDE OIL: The 78.01/76.43 To Halt Bear Pressure - As Crude Oil weakened for a second day in a row on Tuesday following its loss of upside momentum at 80.75, we are looking for its Feb 03’10 high at 78.01 … CRUDE OIL CRUDE OIL: The 78.01/76.43 To Halt Bear Pressure. CRUDE OIL: As Crude Oil weakened for a second day in a row on Tuesday following its loss of upside momentum at 80.75, we are looking for its Feb 03’10 high at 78.01 or its long term rising trendlinesupport currently
In This Issue: CRUDE OIL: The 78.01/76.43 To Halt Bear Pressure - As Crude Oil weakened for a second day in a row on Tuesday following its loss of upside momentum at 80.75, we are looking for its Feb 03’10 high at 78.01 … CRUDE OIL CRUDE OIL: The 78.01/76.43 To Halt Bear Pressure. CRUDE OIL: As Crude Oil weakened for a second day in a row on Tuesday following its loss of upside momentum at 80.75, we are looking for its Feb 03’10 high at 78.01 or its long term rising trendlinesupport currently
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The shipments advanced 40.9 percent from a year earlier
February 24th, 2010 at 11:53amGood morning from snowy Hamburg and welcome to Varengold’s Daily FX Report. Today the congressional testimony for the FED Chairman Ben Bernanke is beginning and economists hope for some answers regarding his plans to end one of the worst job slumps in the U.S. Market review After two days of gains the USD declined against the EUR on speculation that the Federal Reserve will hold the key interest rates near zero to support the economic growth. Economists expect that the Chairman of the FED Ben
Good morning from snowy Hamburg and welcome to Varengold’s Daily FX Report. Today the congressional testimony for the FED Chairman Ben Bernanke is beginning and economists hope for some answers regarding his plans to end one of the worst job slumps in the U.S. Market review After two days of gains the USD declined against the EUR on speculation that the Federal Reserve will hold the key interest rates near zero to support the economic growth. Economists expect that the Chairman of the FED Ben
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The Dollar gained versus the other majors after disappointing Consumer Confidence raised Risk Aversion again
February 24th, 2010 at 11:09amDaily Review 24/2/2010 USD Dollar (USD) – The Dollar gained versus the other majors after disappointing Consumer Confidence raised Risk Aversion again. CB Consumer Confidence came out weaker with 46 versus 55 forecast. NASDAQ and Dow Jones finished lower with -1.28% and -0.97% respectively near their session lows after disappointing consumer confidence reading and a stronger Dollar. Crude Oil declined by -1.81% closing at 78.86$ a barrel. Gold (XAU) weakened by -0.89% closing at 1,102.7$ an
Daily Review 24/2/2010 USD Dollar (USD) – The Dollar gained versus the other majors after disappointing Consumer Confidence raised Risk Aversion again. CB Consumer Confidence came out weaker with 46 versus 55 forecast. NASDAQ and Dow Jones finished lower with -1.28% and -0.97% respectively near their session lows after disappointing consumer confidence reading and a stronger Dollar. Crude Oil declined by -1.81% closing at 78.86$ a barrel. Gold (XAU) weakened by -0.89% closing at 1,102.7$ an
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Gold Daily Technical Outlook
February 24th, 2010 at 10:27amComex Gold (GC) Gold's sharp fall and break of 1099.1 support today indicates that choppy recovery from 1044.5 has completed at 1131.5 after failing to sustain above 1126.4 resistance. The development also suggests that whole correction from 1227.5 is still in progress. Intraday bias is flipped back to the downside for retesting 1044.5 low first. On the upside, note that another rise above 1131.5 resistance now should confirm that fall from 1227.5 has completed with three waves down to 1044.5
Comex Gold (GC) Gold's sharp fall and break of 1099.1 support today indicates that choppy recovery from 1044.5 has completed at 1131.5 after failing to sustain above 1126.4 resistance. The development also suggests that whole correction from 1227.5 is still in progress. Intraday bias is flipped back to the downside for retesting 1044.5 low first. On the upside, note that another rise above 1131.5 resistance now should confirm that fall from 1227.5 has completed with three waves down to 1044.5
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EUR/GBP: Current level-0,8763
February 24th, 2010 at 10:19amEUR/GBP ? February 24, 2010 Current level-0,8763 Longer term bias remains bearish for the pair, although the range between 0,8850 and 0,8660 needs resolution. A break above could open space for further gains for the pair. Intraday: The pair peaked at 0,8835 and retraced back to find support at 50% Fib. Neutral bias, to maintain range for today. Stay alert for a breakout either way of the range 0,8660 - 0,8850
EUR/GBP ? February 24, 2010 Current level-0,8763 Longer term bias remains bearish for the pair, although the range between 0,8850 and 0,8660 needs resolution. A break above could open space for further gains for the pair. Intraday: The pair peaked at 0,8835 and retraced back to find support at 50% Fib. Neutral bias, to maintain range for today. Stay alert for a breakout either way of the range 0,8660 - 0,8850
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Today's Trading Signals
February 24th, 2010 at 8:41amThe trading strategies are based exclusively on technical analysis and are short term with a maximum time horizon of 3 to 5 days. The philosophy behind the Today's Trading Signals (TTS) is to take low risk, high return positions with tight stops. That means Financial Trend Analysis (FTA) focus the most on placing the right stops. Every morning FTA reviews the market and the specific strategy, recalculates the risk/reward and then determines the strategy regardless of previous strategy in the
The trading strategies are based exclusively on technical analysis and are short term with a maximum time horizon of 3 to 5 days. The philosophy behind the Today's Trading Signals (TTS) is to take low risk, high return positions with tight stops. That means Financial Trend Analysis (FTA) focus the most on placing the right stops. Every morning FTA reviews the market and the specific strategy, recalculates the risk/reward and then determines the strategy regardless of previous strategy in the
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EURUSD bears are loosing their confidence
February 24th, 2010 at 7:48amNew support and resistance levels are formed again. Bearish side isloosing their confidence after each bulls attempt to recover theprice. At the moment, bearish side can initiate stronger negativemovements downside just below support barrier. While support levelholds, bulls have potential to break resistance level. Waiting actionremains for now.
New support and resistance levels are formed again. Bearish side isloosing their confidence after each bulls attempt to recover theprice. At the moment, bearish side can initiate stronger negativemovements downside just below support barrier. While support levelholds, bulls have potential to break resistance level. Waiting actionremains for now.
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EUR: Attempt small longs at 1.3535
February 24th, 2010 at 7:41amEUR Comment: Yesterday’s ‘spike high’ after Friday’s ‘spike low’ underline the fact this market is thrashing around looking for direction, still trapped inside a downward-sloping ‘wedge’ formation. We continue to see this as a reversal pattern and will watch for much clearer signs of this in the weekly and monthly candles. The Euro is oversold and bearish momentum has eased very considerably. Strategy: Attempt small longs at 1.3535; stop below 1.3400. First target 1.3650, then 1.3700. EUR/JPY
EUR Comment: Yesterday’s ‘spike high’ after Friday’s ‘spike low’ underline the fact this market is thrashing around looking for direction, still trapped inside a downward-sloping ‘wedge’ formation. We continue to see this as a reversal pattern and will watch for much clearer signs of this in the weekly and monthly candles. The Euro is oversold and bearish momentum has eased very considerably. Strategy: Attempt small longs at 1.3535; stop below 1.3400. First target 1.3650, then 1.3700. EUR/JPY
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Bearish Activity in Euro Strengthened Again
February 24th, 2010 at 7:41amEUR The earlier opened and held long positions had a positive result in overlap of minimal anticipated target. OsMA trend indicator, having marked break of key supports by relative rise of bearish party activity, suggests incompleteness of rate decline and, as a result, preference of sales in planning trading operations for today. Hence and considering ascending direction of indicator chart, we can assume probability of rate return to borders of Ichimoku cloud at 1,3580/1,3600 levels, where it
EUR The earlier opened and held long positions had a positive result in overlap of minimal anticipated target. OsMA trend indicator, having marked break of key supports by relative rise of bearish party activity, suggests incompleteness of rate decline and, as a result, preference of sales in planning trading operations for today. Hence and considering ascending direction of indicator chart, we can assume probability of rate return to borders of Ichimoku cloud at 1,3580/1,3600 levels, where it
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EUR/USD: (1.3542) New reaction low on Fed's move
February 24th, 2010 at 6:49amNew reaction low on Fed’s move,with pair currently toying back with the daily channel bottom off 1.5142 (1.3539 today): Support area at 1.3503/ .3496 (today’s low?/ current week low), with next levels at 1.3483 (reaction low hourly), where pause favored. If wrong, next levels at 1.3443 (reaction low off 1.5145) and 1.3428 (daily Bollinger bottom + daily envelope bottom) and 1.3413/ 1.3405 (weekly Bollinger bottom/ 61.8% 2008 low to 1.5145): tough on 1st attempts. Resistance at 1.3560 (daily
New reaction low on Fed’s move,with pair currently toying back with the daily channel bottom off 1.5142 (1.3539 today): Support area at 1.3503/ .3496 (today’s low?/ current week low), with next levels at 1.3483 (reaction low hourly), where pause favored. If wrong, next levels at 1.3443 (reaction low off 1.5145) and 1.3428 (daily Bollinger bottom + daily envelope bottom) and 1.3413/ 1.3405 (weekly Bollinger bottom/ 61.8% 2008 low to 1.5145): tough on 1st attempts. Resistance at 1.3560 (daily
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EURUSD, GBPUSD & USDJPY Support & Resistance Analysis
February 24th, 2010 at 6:31amPivotfarm.com is a provider of Technical Analysis data sheets for traders of various markets. Our data considers some of the most widely followed methodologies including Market Profile, Fibonacci, Volume Analysis, Calculated Pivots and most importantly price based Support and Resistance (S&R). We have combined all these methodologies in a confluence matrix. This allows the trader to determine the strength and importance of an S&R level; based upon the levels other market participants
Pivotfarm.com is a provider of Technical Analysis data sheets for traders of various markets. Our data considers some of the most widely followed methodologies including Market Profile, Fibonacci, Volume Analysis, Calculated Pivots and most importantly price based Support and Resistance (S&R). We have combined all these methodologies in a confluence matrix. This allows the trader to determine the strength and importance of an S&R level; based upon the levels other market participants
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Currency Majors Technical Analysis
February 24th, 2010 at 6:04amGBP/JPY - British Pound / Yen Entry : 139.5 Stop : 140 Resistances : 141.75 - 140.75 - 139.6 Supports : 138 - 138.3 - 138.75 USD/CHF - US Dollar / Swiss Franc Entry : 1.081 Stop : 1.0855 Resistances : 1.102 - 1.09 - 1.0845 Supports : 1.065 - 1.0725 - 1.079 USD/JPY - US Dollar / Yen Entry : 90.2 Stop : 90.5 Resistances : 91.3 - 90.55 - 90.3 Supports : 89.15 - 89.55 - 89.9 EUR/JPY - Euro / Yen Entry : 122.15 Stop : 122.7 Resistances : 125.25 - 123.65 - 122.3 Supports : 120 - 120.7 - 121.6
GBP/JPY - British Pound / Yen Entry : 139.5 Stop : 140 Resistances : 141.75 - 140.75 - 139.6 Supports : 138 - 138.3 - 138.75 USD/CHF - US Dollar / Swiss Franc Entry : 1.081 Stop : 1.0855 Resistances : 1.102 - 1.09 - 1.0845 Supports : 1.065 - 1.0725 - 1.079 USD/JPY - US Dollar / Yen Entry : 90.2 Stop : 90.5 Resistances : 91.3 - 90.55 - 90.3 Supports : 89.15 - 89.55 - 89.9 EUR/JPY - Euro / Yen Entry : 122.15 Stop : 122.7 Resistances : 125.25 - 123.65 - 122.3 Supports : 120 - 120.7 - 121.6
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Daily Forex and Dow Jones Recommended Levels
February 24th, 2010 at 4:47amSeveral words about the EUR/USD future. Resistance (daily close) : ?1.3182, 1.3364, 1.3590 and 1.3778. After that 1.3958, 1.4186 and 1.4400. Break of the latter will give ?1.4490, 1.4692 ? 1.4884. Then 1.5117, 1.5386 , 1.5592 ? 1.5660. Break of 1.5660 would lead to ?1.5865, 1.7280 ? 1.9430 (published on 23.10.2008) . Support (daily close) : 1.2610, 1.2428 and 1.2246. Then 1.2128, 1.1970, 1.1838 and 1.1700. Break of the latter would give 1.1533, 1.1352 and 1.1181 (published ? n
Several words about the EUR/USD future. Resistance (daily close) : ?1.3182, 1.3364, 1.3590 and 1.3778. After that 1.3958, 1.4186 and 1.4400. Break of the latter will give ?1.4490, 1.4692 ? 1.4884. Then 1.5117, 1.5386 , 1.5592 ? 1.5660. Break of 1.5660 would lead to ?1.5865, 1.7280 ? 1.9430 (published on 23.10.2008) . Support (daily close) : 1.2610, 1.2428 and 1.2246. Then 1.2128, 1.1970, 1.1838 and 1.1700. Break of the latter would give 1.1533, 1.1352 and 1.1181 (published ? n
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GBPUSD drops sharply from 1.5575
February 24th, 2010 at 3:16amGBPUSD drops sharply from 1.5575 and reaches as low as 1.5393 level. Now the fall could possibly be resumption of downtrend from 1.6456. Deeper decline is expected to test 1.5350 support later today, a breakdown below this level will confirm that the downward movement has resumed, then next target would be at 1.5250 area.
GBPUSD drops sharply from 1.5575 and reaches as low as 1.5393 level. Now the fall could possibly be resumption of downtrend from 1.6456. Deeper decline is expected to test 1.5350 support later today, a breakdown below this level will confirm that the downward movement has resumed, then next target would be at 1.5250 area.
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2.23.2010
February 24th, 2010 at 2:00am?? The greenback continued to gain on the majors, but the Japanese yen trumped the greenback today in a bout of risk aversion. We will take a look at new development from the USD/CAD, the decline in USD/JPY and EUR/JPY, and follow up on the EUR/GBP pairs.
?? The greenback continued to gain on the majors, but the Japanese yen trumped the greenback today in a bout of risk aversion. We will take a look at new development from the USD/CAD, the decline in USD/JPY and EUR/JPY, and follow up on the EUR/GBP pairs.
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Jittery Investors Drive Treasury Bonds Higher
February 24th, 2010 at 12:36amAversion to risk and oversold conditions helped give Treasury futures a boost. In addition, weaker than expected U.S. economic data, increased concerns that the U.S. economic recovery may be faltering. Some of the rally may have been short-covering ahead of Fed Chairman Bernanke’s testimony on Wednesday. ? After a weaker opening, U.S. equity markets plunged to the downside following a so-so housing report and an unexpected drop in consumer confidence. Investors had been jittery coming
Aversion to risk and oversold conditions helped give Treasury futures a boost. In addition, weaker than expected U.S. economic data, increased concerns that the U.S. economic recovery may be faltering. Some of the rally may have been short-covering ahead of Fed Chairman Bernanke’s testimony on Wednesday. ? After a weaker opening, U.S. equity markets plunged to the downside following a so-so housing report and an unexpected drop in consumer confidence. Investors had been jittery coming
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U.S. Dollar Turnaround keeps Uptrend Intact
February 24th, 2010 at 12:34amThe U.S. Dollar mounted a strong turnaround on Tuesday following a weaker overnight trade. A surprise drop in consumer confidence in the U.S. and an unexpected fall in German business confidence reversed the Dollar higher against most major currencies.? Both reports indicate that there are increasing concerns regarding the strength of the global economic recovery. ? The U.S. Dollar traded higher against all major currencies except the Japanese Yen as risk sentiment shifted back
The U.S. Dollar mounted a strong turnaround on Tuesday following a weaker overnight trade. A surprise drop in consumer confidence in the U.S. and an unexpected fall in German business confidence reversed the Dollar higher against most major currencies.? Both reports indicate that there are increasing concerns regarding the strength of the global economic recovery. ? The U.S. Dollar traded higher against all major currencies except the Japanese Yen as risk sentiment shifted back
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Currency Majors Technical Perspective
February 23rd, 2010 at 11:20pmEUR/USD Current price: 1.3514 More concerns over already over stressed euro zone, along with US economic data that missed expectations by a broad margin triggering risk aversion, send the pair lower this Tuesday, back to test the 1.3490 key support; Wall Street loses could weight strongly in local share markets, exacerbating risk aversion during Asian session. Pair is showing indicators exhausted to the downside in the 1 hour chart, drawing a shy upside corrective movement that has remained
EUR/USD Current price: 1.3514 More concerns over already over stressed euro zone, along with US economic data that missed expectations by a broad margin triggering risk aversion, send the pair lower this Tuesday, back to test the 1.3490 key support; Wall Street loses could weight strongly in local share markets, exacerbating risk aversion during Asian session. Pair is showing indicators exhausted to the downside in the 1 hour chart, drawing a shy upside corrective movement that has remained
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Comprehensive FX and Futures Daily Commentary
February 23rd, 2010 at 4:30pmDaily Market Commentary EUR/USD Winning Streak Snapped with Negative Data The EUR/USD’s run topped out and the currency pair has dropped quickly, sinking below 2/22 lows in the wake of weaker than expected EU data. Germany’s Ifo Business Climate number came in a point below analyst expectations. However, the more disconcerting release today is the huge decline in French Consumer Spending. The figure printed -2.1% lower than analyst expectations and is the weakest reading since October 2006.
Daily Market Commentary EUR/USD Winning Streak Snapped with Negative Data The EUR/USD’s run topped out and the currency pair has dropped quickly, sinking below 2/22 lows in the wake of weaker than expected EU data. Germany’s Ifo Business Climate number came in a point below analyst expectations. However, the more disconcerting release today is the huge decline in French Consumer Spending. The figure printed -2.1% lower than analyst expectations and is the weakest reading since October 2006.
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Week 9 0f 2010 (Mar 01 – Mar 05)
February 27th, 2010 at 11:54amUSDJPY ? USDJPY seems to have resume its downward trend and it seems that it has gathered momentum and this momentum will continue in coming weeks. Currently USDJPY is looking to head towards 87.40 level and once it managed to break that level, USDJPY will be looking to aim 85.50 next. RSI in weekly charts is just above 43 and seems to have enough to support a good and extended dip by USDJPY. This week traders will look to sell USDJPY for anything above 90.00 level and if the upward move
USDJPY ? USDJPY seems to have resume its downward trend and it seems that it has gathered momentum and this momentum will continue in coming weeks. Currently USDJPY is looking to head towards 87.40 level and once it managed to break that level, USDJPY will be looking to aim 85.50 next. RSI in weekly charts is just above 43 and seems to have enough to support a good and extended dip by USDJPY. This week traders will look to sell USDJPY for anything above 90.00 level and if the upward move
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GBPUSD might take a breather
February 27th, 2010 at 11:51amGBPUSD: (1.5246) GBPUSD seems to be going a nice downward trend but has touched the lower end of downward channel and therefore we might see some retracement by GBPUSD earlier next week. Secondly the RSI is also on the lower side, so it will also be pushing GBPUSD upwards. Currently we might see GBPUSD take retrace towards 1.5375 level and that will be top of downward channel and will provide a very good selling opportunity for GBPUSD. If the retracement is extended above 1.5375 level, then we
GBPUSD: (1.5246) GBPUSD seems to be going a nice downward trend but has touched the lower end of downward channel and therefore we might see some retracement by GBPUSD earlier next week. Secondly the RSI is also on the lower side, so it will also be pushing GBPUSD upwards. Currently we might see GBPUSD take retrace towards 1.5375 level and that will be top of downward channel and will provide a very good selling opportunity for GBPUSD. If the retracement is extended above 1.5375 level, then we
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Crude Oil Weekly Technical Outlook
February 27th, 2010 at 5:48amNymex Crude Oil (CL) Crude oil turned into consolidation after edging high to 80.51 initially last week and turned and dipped to as low as 77.05. Nevertheless, with 75.69 resistance turned support intact, rise from 69.05 should still be in progress. Indeed, Friday's strong rebound indicates that consolidation from 80.51 might have completed already. Initial bias is cautiously on the upside this week. Break of 80.51 will confirm rise resumption and should target a retest on 83.95 high next. On
Nymex Crude Oil (CL) Crude oil turned into consolidation after edging high to 80.51 initially last week and turned and dipped to as low as 77.05. Nevertheless, with 75.69 resistance turned support intact, rise from 69.05 should still be in progress. Indeed, Friday's strong rebound indicates that consolidation from 80.51 might have completed already. Initial bias is cautiously on the upside this week. Break of 80.51 will confirm rise resumption and should target a retest on 83.95 high next. On
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EURUSD remains in downward movement from 1.5144
February 27th, 2010 at 4:28amEURUSD remains in downward movement from 1.5144 and the bounce from 1.3443 is more likely consolidation of downtrend. Range trading between 1.3443 and 1.3838 is expected next week. As long as 1.3838 resistance holds, another fall towards 1.3300-1.3400 area is possible. However, above 1.3838 key resistance will indicate that a cycle bottom has been formed at 1.3443 level on daily chart, and the fall from 1.5144 has completed. For long term analysis, EURUSD has formed a cycle top at 1.5144 level
EURUSD remains in downward movement from 1.5144 and the bounce from 1.3443 is more likely consolidation of downtrend. Range trading between 1.3443 and 1.3838 is expected next week. As long as 1.3838 resistance holds, another fall towards 1.3300-1.3400 area is possible. However, above 1.3838 key resistance will indicate that a cycle bottom has been formed at 1.3443 level on daily chart, and the fall from 1.5144 has completed. For long term analysis, EURUSD has formed a cycle top at 1.5144 level
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Stock Traders Ignore Weak Housing Data; Focus Shifts toward Weaker U.S. Dollar
February 26th, 2010 at 11:56pmStock traders ignored the weaker existing home sales report and turned its focus on the U.S. Dollar which weakened because of increased demand for higher risk assets. This week’s testimony by Fed Chairman Bernanke may have set the tone for today’s rally. Earlier in the week, Bernanke said that interest rates would remain low for a prolonged period of time which may have triggered demand for higher yielding stocks. ? The rally on Friday put the March E-mini S&P 500 in a position to
Stock traders ignored the weaker existing home sales report and turned its focus on the U.S. Dollar which weakened because of increased demand for higher risk assets. This week’s testimony by Fed Chairman Bernanke may have set the tone for today’s rally. Earlier in the week, Bernanke said that interest rates would remain low for a prolonged period of time which may have triggered demand for higher yielding stocks. ? The rally on Friday put the March E-mini S&P 500 in a position to
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Report that Germany May Buy Greek Bonds Boosts EUR USD
February 26th, 2010 at 11:54pmThe Euro rallied on Friday after Bloomberg reported that Germany may buy Greek bonds.? Shorts read this as a potential vote of confidence for Greece and used the news as an excuse to cover positions. The strong rally put the EUR USD in a position to turn the main trend to up on a rally through the last main top at 1.3692. ? Despite a rise in Fourth Quarter GDP, the GBP USD finished lower on Friday, but off its low. Friday’s action was an indication of just how weak the U.K. economy
The Euro rallied on Friday after Bloomberg reported that Germany may buy Greek bonds.? Shorts read this as a potential vote of confidence for Greece and used the news as an excuse to cover positions. The strong rally put the EUR USD in a position to turn the main trend to up on a rally through the last main top at 1.3692. ? Despite a rise in Fourth Quarter GDP, the GBP USD finished lower on Friday, but off its low. Friday’s action was an indication of just how weak the U.K. economy
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Currency Majors Technical Perspective
February 26th, 2010 at 3:04pmEUR/USD Current price: 1.3587 After US data firmer than expected, pair has slightly regained some ground, still capped by the 1.3610 area. Holding above 20 SMA, pair has a slightly bullish perspective for current session, despite flat indicators in the hourly time frame. Key level to watch to the upside lies at the 1.3630/40 area, that if overcome could send the pair close to 1.3700 area. Under 1.3530, pair should lost the bias and resume downtrend. Support levels: 1.3530 1.3490 1.3440
EUR/USD Current price: 1.3587 After US data firmer than expected, pair has slightly regained some ground, still capped by the 1.3610 area. Holding above 20 SMA, pair has a slightly bullish perspective for current session, despite flat indicators in the hourly time frame. Key level to watch to the upside lies at the 1.3630/40 area, that if overcome could send the pair close to 1.3700 area. Under 1.3530, pair should lost the bias and resume downtrend. Support levels: 1.3530 1.3490 1.3440
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U.S. Stock Traders Remain Cautious Ahead of Economic Reports
February 26th, 2010 at 2:05pmDespite a pick-up in demand for higher risk assets and higher Asian equity markets, U.S. stock indices are predicting a flat to lower opening. Traders seem to be taking a cautious approach before the release of this morning’s U.S. GDP, Chicago PMI, consumer confidence and existing home sales reports. ? Treasury markets are trading higher this morning. Investors appear to be anticipating U.S. economic reports to come out lower than expected. This will keep the pressure on the Fed to keep
Despite a pick-up in demand for higher risk assets and higher Asian equity markets, U.S. stock indices are predicting a flat to lower opening. Traders seem to be taking a cautious approach before the release of this morning’s U.S. GDP, Chicago PMI, consumer confidence and existing home sales reports. ? Treasury markets are trading higher this morning. Investors appear to be anticipating U.S. economic reports to come out lower than expected. This will keep the pressure on the Fed to keep
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Higher Appetite for Risk Pressures U.S. Dollar Overnight
February 26th, 2010 at 2:00pmConcerns about sovereign debt issues in Greece eased overnight helping to increase demand for higher risk assets. In addition, good economic news from Japan and higher stock markets in Asia helped increase optimism over the global economic recovery. ? With tensions easing regarding the sovereign debt problems in some of the European Union nations, Forex trader focus will be on U.S. economic reports. ? Out of the box first this morning will be the final U.S. Fourth Quarter GDP Report.
Concerns about sovereign debt issues in Greece eased overnight helping to increase demand for higher risk assets. In addition, good economic news from Japan and higher stock markets in Asia helped increase optimism over the global economic recovery. ? With tensions easing regarding the sovereign debt problems in some of the European Union nations, Forex trader focus will be on U.S. economic reports. ? Out of the box first this morning will be the final U.S. Fourth Quarter GDP Report.
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FX Thoughts for the Day
February 26th, 2010 at 12:07pmUSD-CHF @ 1.0768/71...Support in 1.0720-00 region R: 1.0800 / 1.0837 / 1.0882 S: 1.0720-00 / 1.0650-30 / 1.0600 Swiss is continuing to trade below 1.08. Support is seen in 1.0720-00 region which is expected to hold in the US session today and we expect the current upmove to continue. Note that the 21-DMA Support is at 1.0714 and the projected Max-Low is also 1.0714. We might expect a bounce back once again towards 1.0830-50 from this Support region (1.0720-00). On the other hand a strong break
USD-CHF @ 1.0768/71...Support in 1.0720-00 region R: 1.0800 / 1.0837 / 1.0882 S: 1.0720-00 / 1.0650-30 / 1.0600 Swiss is continuing to trade below 1.08. Support is seen in 1.0720-00 region which is expected to hold in the US session today and we expect the current upmove to continue. Note that the 21-DMA Support is at 1.0714 and the projected Max-Low is also 1.0714. We might expect a bounce back once again towards 1.0830-50 from this Support region (1.0720-00). On the other hand a strong break
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Daily Forex and Dow Jones Recommended Levels
February 26th, 2010 at 11:27amSeveral words about the EUR/USD future. Resistance (daily close) : ?1.3182, 1.3364, 1.3590 and 1.3778. After that 1.3958, 1.4186 and 1.4400. Break of the latter will give ?1.4490, 1.4692 ? 1.4884. Then 1.5117, 1.5386 , 1.5592 ? 1.5660. Break of 1.5660 would lead to ?1.5865, 1.7280 ? 1.9430 (published on 23.10.2008) . Support (daily close) : 1.2610, 1.2428 and 1.2246. Then 1.2128, 1.1970, 1.1838 and 1.1700. Break of the latter would give 1.1533, 1.1352 and 1.1181 (published ? n
Several words about the EUR/USD future. Resistance (daily close) : ?1.3182, 1.3364, 1.3590 and 1.3778. After that 1.3958, 1.4186 and 1.4400. Break of the latter will give ?1.4490, 1.4692 ? 1.4884. Then 1.5117, 1.5386 , 1.5592 ? 1.5660. Break of 1.5660 would lead to ?1.5865, 1.7280 ? 1.9430 (published on 23.10.2008) . Support (daily close) : 1.2610, 1.2428 and 1.2246. Then 1.2128, 1.1970, 1.1838 and 1.1700. Break of the latter would give 1.1533, 1.1352 and 1.1181 (published ? n
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Technically still bullish potential above this 1094 level in our opinion
February 26th, 2010 at 11:08amMarket Comment Yesterday’s bar was not quite as bearish as the price action of Tuesday and today’s bar is important to judge the last few days weakness is for real or not. Bernanke produced a good rally off the lows yesterday as the low interest outlook was reiterated. The movements in JPY seems to be much more focused to the downside whenever S&P moves lower, but not able to really recover that much when S&P rallies. We used to have EURJPY as our risk appetite parameter, but the
Market Comment Yesterday’s bar was not quite as bearish as the price action of Tuesday and today’s bar is important to judge the last few days weakness is for real or not. Bernanke produced a good rally off the lows yesterday as the low interest outlook was reiterated. The movements in JPY seems to be much more focused to the downside whenever S&P moves lower, but not able to really recover that much when S&P rallies. We used to have EURJPY as our risk appetite parameter, but the
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Technical Summary for Majors
February 26th, 2010 at 10:37amEUR/USD Bounced higher, just off key 1.3445 low, to test 1.3600 so far. Bearish tone remains dominant while 1.3625 caps the upside, for fresh attempt at 1.3451/45. Clearance of 1.3625 to open way for stronger correction towards 1.3650/90. Res: 1.3601, 1.3625, 1.3650, 1.3690 Sup: 1.3530, 1.3465, 1.3445, 1.3420 ? GBP/USD Remains constructive off yesterday’s 1.5188 low, testing now 1.5300, on the way to 1.5385/90, where the potential lower top is seen. Wider picture still favors bears, with
EUR/USD Bounced higher, just off key 1.3445 low, to test 1.3600 so far. Bearish tone remains dominant while 1.3625 caps the upside, for fresh attempt at 1.3451/45. Clearance of 1.3625 to open way for stronger correction towards 1.3650/90. Res: 1.3601, 1.3625, 1.3650, 1.3690 Sup: 1.3530, 1.3465, 1.3445, 1.3420 ? GBP/USD Remains constructive off yesterday’s 1.5188 low, testing now 1.5300, on the way to 1.5385/90, where the potential lower top is seen. Wider picture still favors bears, with
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Eurodollar Future – December 2010
February 26th, 2010 at 9:49amComment: Brilliant! Within one week of the Fed’s discount rate hike Eurodollar futures contracts are trading at new record highs. In Europe the money market is completely frozen and in the US Mr. Bernanke rightly insisted the confidentiality of the discount window must be maintained while saying the move was to ‘discourage banks from relying on the Fed rather than private funding’. Futures will continue to inch up towards Libor as recovery hopes fade; rising open interest suggest many are
Comment: Brilliant! Within one week of the Fed’s discount rate hike Eurodollar futures contracts are trading at new record highs. In Europe the money market is completely frozen and in the US Mr. Bernanke rightly insisted the confidentiality of the discount window must be maintained while saying the move was to ‘discourage banks from relying on the Fed rather than private funding’. Futures will continue to inch up towards Libor as recovery hopes fade; rising open interest suggest many are
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The USD/CAD climbed to a two-week high as crude oil fell below 80$ a barrel and stocks slid
February 26th, 2010 at 9:33amGood morning and welcome to our Daily FX Report. Before the weekend starts there are many interesting economic data coming. The U.K., the Euro-Zone and also the U.S. will announce their gross domestic product for the last quarter of 2009, today. However, we wish you a nice weekend. Market review The USD declined against 14 of its 16 major counterparts during the last Asia session after reports showed that the Japanese retail sales unexpectedly rebounded, the industrial production expanded and
Good morning and welcome to our Daily FX Report. Before the weekend starts there are many interesting economic data coming. The U.K., the Euro-Zone and also the U.S. will announce their gross domestic product for the last quarter of 2009, today. However, we wish you a nice weekend. Market review The USD declined against 14 of its 16 major counterparts during the last Asia session after reports showed that the Japanese retail sales unexpectedly rebounded, the industrial production expanded and
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Forex Technical Analysis on Majors
February 26th, 2010 at 9:23amEUR/USD Current level-1.3562 EUR/USD is in a downtrend, after peaking at 1.5146 (Nov.25,2009). Technical indicators are neutral, and trading is situated below the 50- and 200-Day SMA, currently projected at 1.4793 and 1.4169. ?? All the tests of the 1.3442 support area have failed and the pair is obviously still in the consolidation pattern below 1.3696. Wednesday's high at 1.3626 has no technical importance, so crucial for the overall negative bias is 1.3696. Current intraday bias
EUR/USD Current level-1.3562 EUR/USD is in a downtrend, after peaking at 1.5146 (Nov.25,2009). Technical indicators are neutral, and trading is situated below the 50- and 200-Day SMA, currently projected at 1.4793 and 1.4169. ?? All the tests of the 1.3442 support area have failed and the pair is obviously still in the consolidation pattern below 1.3696. Wednesday's high at 1.3626 has no technical importance, so crucial for the overall negative bias is 1.3696. Current intraday bias
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EUR/GBP, USD/CAD, GBP/JPY Technicals
February 26th, 2010 at 9:05amEUR/GBP ? EUR/GBP February 26, 2010 Current level-0,8885 Longer term bias remains bearish for the pair, the break above 0,8840 resistance is a short term bullish sign, but the clear obstacle lays ahead: 0,8900 trendline resistance. We will need to see a weekly close above this level to confirm a change in trend. Intraday: We had a break above 0,8840 and todays session is key to decide longer term direction. Expect some bearish pressure at this levels. A watch out for a break of this
EUR/GBP ? EUR/GBP February 26, 2010 Current level-0,8885 Longer term bias remains bearish for the pair, the break above 0,8840 resistance is a short term bullish sign, but the clear obstacle lays ahead: 0,8900 trendline resistance. We will need to see a weekly close above this level to confirm a change in trend. Intraday: We had a break above 0,8840 and todays session is key to decide longer term direction. Expect some bearish pressure at this levels. A watch out for a break of this
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Financial Trend Analysis Strategy: Short EURUSD
February 26th, 2010 at 9:03amThe trading strategies are based exclusively on technical analysis and are short term with a maximum time horizon of 3 to 5 days. The philosophy behind the Today's Trading Signals (TTS) is to take low risk, high return positions with tight stops. That means Financial Trend Analysis (FTA) focus the most on placing the right stops. Every morning FTA reviews the market and the specific strategy, recalculates the risk/reward and then determines the strategy regardless of previous strategy in the
The trading strategies are based exclusively on technical analysis and are short term with a maximum time horizon of 3 to 5 days. The philosophy behind the Today's Trading Signals (TTS) is to take low risk, high return positions with tight stops. That means Financial Trend Analysis (FTA) focus the most on placing the right stops. Every morning FTA reviews the market and the specific strategy, recalculates the risk/reward and then determines the strategy regardless of previous strategy in the
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EUR: Attempt small longs at 1.3565
February 26th, 2010 at 8:00amEUR Comment: Clinging above this year’s low at 1.3443 while holding neatly inside a downward-sloping ‘wedge’ formation. We continue to see this as a reversal pattern and will watch for much clearer signs of this in the weekly and monthly candles. A break above the 9-day moving average and the top of the ‘wedge’ might lead to the first round of short-covering. Strategy : Attempt small longs at 1.3565; stop below 1.3400. Add to longs on a sustained break above 1.3630 for 1.3700 and then more.
EUR Comment: Clinging above this year’s low at 1.3443 while holding neatly inside a downward-sloping ‘wedge’ formation. We continue to see this as a reversal pattern and will watch for much clearer signs of this in the weekly and monthly candles. A break above the 9-day moving average and the top of the ‘wedge’ might lead to the first round of short-covering. Strategy : Attempt small longs at 1.3565; stop below 1.3400. Add to longs on a sustained break above 1.3630 for 1.3700 and then more.
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EURUSD Technical Analysis
February 26th, 2010 at 7:42amSupport and resistance level stay at the same levels, however bulls are heading towards resistance barrier. While trend line is not broken, bears are in safer area, however it looks like bulls are going for another attempt to test resistance barrier. Confirmation of resistance breakout is needed in order to initiate stronger bulls movement. Waiting action is better to take for now.
Support and resistance level stay at the same levels, however bulls are heading towards resistance barrier. While trend line is not broken, bears are in safer area, however it looks like bulls are going for another attempt to test resistance barrier. Confirmation of resistance breakout is needed in order to initiate stronger bulls movement. Waiting action is better to take for now.
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Still No Clear Perspective in Euro
February 26th, 2010 at 7:39amEUR The pre-planned short positions from key resistance range levels have been implemented with attainment of minimal anticipated target. OsMA trend indicator, having marked close parity of both party activity, does not clarify the choice of planning priorities for today. Therefore, considering suppositions about further rate range movement and taking into account bullish sign of indicator chart with bearish reversal signal it is logical to anticipate test of Senkou Span B line in Ichimoku
EUR The pre-planned short positions from key resistance range levels have been implemented with attainment of minimal anticipated target. OsMA trend indicator, having marked close parity of both party activity, does not clarify the choice of planning priorities for today. Therefore, considering suppositions about further rate range movement and taking into account bullish sign of indicator chart with bearish reversal signal it is logical to anticipate test of Senkou Span B line in Ichimoku
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EUR/USD: (1.3590) Reapproached 1.3443
February 26th, 2010 at 6:36amReapproached year low, with pair currently back in the daily channel off 1.5142 (bottom at 1.3493 today): Support area at 1.3531 (reaction low hourly), with next levels at 1.303 (break-up hourly), ahead of 1.3475 (daily envelope bottom), where pause favored. If wrong, next levels at 1.3451/ .3443 (current week low/ current reaction low off 1.5145), with next levels at 1.3419/ .3405 (daily Bollinger bottom/ 61.8% 2008 low to 1.5145), ahead of 1.3373 (potential of daily Flag break off 1.4218):
Reapproached year low, with pair currently back in the daily channel off 1.5142 (bottom at 1.3493 today): Support area at 1.3531 (reaction low hourly), with next levels at 1.303 (break-up hourly), ahead of 1.3475 (daily envelope bottom), where pause favored. If wrong, next levels at 1.3451/ .3443 (current week low/ current reaction low off 1.5145), with next levels at 1.3419/ .3405 (daily Bollinger bottom/ 61.8% 2008 low to 1.5145), ahead of 1.3373 (potential of daily Flag break off 1.4218):
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EURUSD, GBPUSD & USDJPY Support & Resistance Analysis
February 26th, 2010 at 6:25amPivotfarm.com is a provider of Technical Analysis data sheets for traders of various markets. Our data considers some of the most widely followed methodologies including Market Profile, Fibonacci, Volume Analysis, Calculated Pivots and most importantly price based Support and Resistance (S&R). We have combined all these methodologies in a confluence matrix. This allows the trader to determine the strength and importance of an S&R level; based upon the levels other market participants
Pivotfarm.com is a provider of Technical Analysis data sheets for traders of various markets. Our data considers some of the most widely followed methodologies including Market Profile, Fibonacci, Volume Analysis, Calculated Pivots and most importantly price based Support and Resistance (S&R). We have combined all these methodologies in a confluence matrix. This allows the trader to determine the strength and importance of an S&R level; based upon the levels other market participants
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Currency Majors Technical Analysis
February 26th, 2010 at 6:10amGBP/JPY - British Pound / Yen Entry : 136.4 Stop : 137 Resistances : 139.6 - 138.35 - 136.6 Supports : 134.3 - 135 - 135.9 GBP/USD - British Pound / US Dollar Entry : 1.528 Stop : 1.532 Resistances : 1.548 - 1.5385 - 1.529 Supports : 1.5145 - 1.519 - 1.5235 USD/JPY - US Dollar / Yen Entry : 89.3 Stop : 89.6 Resistances : 90.35 - 89.8 - 89.5 Supports : 88.55 - 88.8 - 89.15 EUR/JPY - Euro / Yen Entry : 121.35 Stop : 121.75 Resistances : 123.65 - 122.65 - 121.5 Supports : 119.6 - 120.25 - 121
GBP/JPY - British Pound / Yen Entry : 136.4 Stop : 137 Resistances : 139.6 - 138.35 - 136.6 Supports : 134.3 - 135 - 135.9 GBP/USD - British Pound / US Dollar Entry : 1.528 Stop : 1.532 Resistances : 1.548 - 1.5385 - 1.529 Supports : 1.5145 - 1.519 - 1.5235 USD/JPY - US Dollar / Yen Entry : 89.3 Stop : 89.6 Resistances : 90.35 - 89.8 - 89.5 Supports : 88.55 - 88.8 - 89.15 EUR/JPY - Euro / Yen Entry : 121.35 Stop : 121.75 Resistances : 123.65 - 122.65 - 121.5 Supports : 119.6 - 120.25 - 121
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GBPUSD breaks below 1.5350
February 26th, 2010 at 4:05amGBPUSD breaks below 1.5350 support and the fall from 1.5815 extends to as low as 1.5190 level. Deeper decline is still possible after a minor consolidation and next target would be at 1.5000 area. Resistance is now located at the falling trend line from 1.5815 to 1.5575, as long as the trend line resistance holds, downtrend from 1.5815 could be expected to continue.
GBPUSD breaks below 1.5350 support and the fall from 1.5815 extends to as low as 1.5190 level. Deeper decline is still possible after a minor consolidation and next target would be at 1.5000 area. Resistance is now located at the falling trend line from 1.5815 to 1.5575, as long as the trend line resistance holds, downtrend from 1.5815 could be expected to continue.
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EUR/USD continues trade lower
February 26th, 2010 at 1:04am?? The EUR/USD continues trade lower, but is supported by the 1.3450 support. Near term rally might setup for another dowswing. The EUR/GBP is also rallying to test resistance and sets up for a decline to follow. The USD/CAD can reach 1.15, but until important resistance is broken, the current bullish action remains in short term. Finally, the EUR/JPY is nearing our projection, but has paused and is showing reversal. Will there be one more leg down towards the 119.00 area?
?? The EUR/USD continues trade lower, but is supported by the 1.3450 support. Near term rally might setup for another dowswing. The EUR/GBP is also rallying to test resistance and sets up for a decline to follow. The USD/CAD can reach 1.15, but until important resistance is broken, the current bullish action remains in short term. Finally, the EUR/JPY is nearing our projection, but has paused and is showing reversal. Will there be one more leg down towards the 119.00 area?
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Buyers Step in after Break to Prevent Stock Market Meltdown
February 26th, 2010 at 12:02amU.S. stock markets were under pressure early in the trading session because of another shift in risk sentiment. Sovereign debt issues in Greece put fear into traders initially, triggering liquidation of risky asset positions. This was followed by a better-than-expected Durable Goods report however the surprise drop in U.S. Weekly Jobs Claims drove equity markets sharply lower. ? The March E-mini S&P 500 plunged to the downside, but found support at a 50% price at 1084.50. Late session
U.S. stock markets were under pressure early in the trading session because of another shift in risk sentiment. Sovereign debt issues in Greece put fear into traders initially, triggering liquidation of risky asset positions. This was followed by a better-than-expected Durable Goods report however the surprise drop in U.S. Weekly Jobs Claims drove equity markets sharply lower. ? The March E-mini S&P 500 plunged to the downside, but found support at a 50% price at 1084.50. Late session
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Problems Mount against British Pound; Short-covering Supports Euro
February 25th, 2010 at 11:58pmSovereign debt issues in Greece and a poor jobs report in the U.S. helped the Dollar finish better against most major currencies. Throughout the day, investors seeking a safe harbor supported the Greenback. Early in the session the Dollar got a boost when rumors spread that the S&P Corp. was considering a cut in Greece’s debt rating. Shortly after the New York session opening, news that Weekly U.S. Jobless Claims rose unexpectedly triggered another strong rally in the Dollar. ? The
Sovereign debt issues in Greece and a poor jobs report in the U.S. helped the Dollar finish better against most major currencies. Throughout the day, investors seeking a safe harbor supported the Greenback. Early in the session the Dollar got a boost when rumors spread that the S&P Corp. was considering a cut in Greece’s debt rating. Shortly after the New York session opening, news that Weekly U.S. Jobless Claims rose unexpectedly triggered another strong rally in the Dollar. ? The
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Currency Majors Technical Perspective
February 25th, 2010 at 11:29pmEUR/USD Current price: 1.3545 Strong came back from 1.3450 low, reached early in the American session, had left the pair in a probable double bottom clear on daily charts that will anyway need a break above the 1.3700 level, to be confirmed. Hourly indicators show pair has lost upside momentum and retreating from the 1.3570/80 resistance area, thus above 20 SMA that seems to be pointing for further upside corrections: pair should overcome mentioned resistance area to extend the rally to next
EUR/USD Current price: 1.3545 Strong came back from 1.3450 low, reached early in the American session, had left the pair in a probable double bottom clear on daily charts that will anyway need a break above the 1.3700 level, to be confirmed. Hourly indicators show pair has lost upside momentum and retreating from the 1.3570/80 resistance area, thus above 20 SMA that seems to be pointing for further upside corrections: pair should overcome mentioned resistance area to extend the rally to next
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Comprehensive FX and Futures Daily Commentary
February 25th, 2010 at 5:13pmDaily Market Commentary EUR/USD Tests February Lows as Greece Fears Reignite The EUR/USD has dipped back below its psychological 1.35 level and is testing February lows as uncertainty in Greece regains steam. S&P and Moody’s warned that they may downgrade Greece’s debt by the end of March should the government not successfully implement its austerity plan. Meanwhile, Greek government officials are throwing verbal grenades at Germany, effectively harming ties with the country Greece may
Daily Market Commentary EUR/USD Tests February Lows as Greece Fears Reignite The EUR/USD has dipped back below its psychological 1.35 level and is testing February lows as uncertainty in Greece regains steam. S&P and Moody’s warned that they may downgrade Greece’s debt by the end of March should the government not successfully implement its austerity plan. Meanwhile, Greek government officials are throwing verbal grenades at Germany, effectively harming ties with the country Greece may
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Chart of the Day – GBP/USD
February 25th, 2010 at 4:22pm(Chart courtesy of FX Solutions' FX AccuCharts. Price on 1st pane, Slow Stochastics on 2nd pane; horizontal support/resistance levels in yellow; uptrend lines in green; downtrend lines in red; chart patterns in white; 50-period simple moving average in light blue.) 2/25/2010 – GBP/USD – Bearish price action on GBP/USD, a daily chart of which is shown, has broken below key support in the 1.5350 price region to establish a new 9-month low and, in the process, tentatively dropped below the bottom
(Chart courtesy of FX Solutions' FX AccuCharts. Price on 1st pane, Slow Stochastics on 2nd pane; horizontal support/resistance levels in yellow; uptrend lines in green; downtrend lines in red; chart patterns in white; 50-period simple moving average in light blue.) 2/25/2010 – GBP/USD – Bearish price action on GBP/USD, a daily chart of which is shown, has broken below key support in the 1.5350 price region to establish a new 9-month low and, in the process, tentatively dropped below the bottom
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Technical Summary for Majors
February 25th, 2010 at 3:21pmEUR/USD Maintains negative tone after yesterday's failure at 1.3625, to reach fresh low at 1.3450. Recovery attempt was short-lived, leaving lower top at 1.3517, ahead of fresh weakness. 1.3445 now in focus, while 1.3525/70 caps. Res: 1.3517, 1.3445, 1.3525, 1.3575 Sup: 1.3445, 1.3420, 1.3342, 1.3245 GBP/USD Fresh weakness off 1.5574 lower top, cleared 1.5343 low, extending losses to a new 9 months low at 1.5243. Hourly studies are oversold, suggesting correction, with 1.5350 and 1.5430/75
EUR/USD Maintains negative tone after yesterday's failure at 1.3625, to reach fresh low at 1.3450. Recovery attempt was short-lived, leaving lower top at 1.3517, ahead of fresh weakness. 1.3445 now in focus, while 1.3525/70 caps. Res: 1.3517, 1.3445, 1.3525, 1.3575 Sup: 1.3445, 1.3420, 1.3342, 1.3245 GBP/USD Fresh weakness off 1.5574 lower top, cleared 1.5343 low, extending losses to a new 9 months low at 1.5243. Hourly studies are oversold, suggesting correction, with 1.5350 and 1.5430/75
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Currency Majors Technical Perspective
February 25th, 2010 at 2:42pmEUR/USD Current price: 1.3471 Breaking lower, risk aversion keeps the pair under pressure since early European opening; capped by the 20 SMA with bearish slope in the hourly charts, both technical and fundamental favor the downside in the pair. Bigger time frames remain pretty bearish supporting the bias, with immediate support at the 1.3440 area, this year low. Upside should remain capped by 1.3530 level to see pair reaching fresh lows today. Support levels: 1.3440 1.3410 1.3380 Resistance
EUR/USD Current price: 1.3471 Breaking lower, risk aversion keeps the pair under pressure since early European opening; capped by the 20 SMA with bearish slope in the hourly charts, both technical and fundamental favor the downside in the pair. Bigger time frames remain pretty bearish supporting the bias, with immediate support at the 1.3440 area, this year low. Upside should remain capped by 1.3530 level to see pair reaching fresh lows today. Support levels: 1.3440 1.3410 1.3380 Resistance
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Stock Market Upside Momentum Stalls
February 25th, 2010 at 2:22pmToday, Fed Chairman Bernanke will continue his testimony before the House Financial Services Committee. Yesterday he said the U.S. economic recovery has been “nascent” and requires low interest rates to help it sustain growth. He also said that low employment and subdued inflation allow the FOMC to keep downside pressure on interest rates. ? Today’s January Durable Goods Report came out better than expected, but that wasn’t enough to help the equities. Stock indices are down on the news
Today, Fed Chairman Bernanke will continue his testimony before the House Financial Services Committee. Yesterday he said the U.S. economic recovery has been “nascent” and requires low interest rates to help it sustain growth. He also said that low employment and subdued inflation allow the FOMC to keep downside pressure on interest rates. ? Today’s January Durable Goods Report came out better than expected, but that wasn’t enough to help the equities. Stock indices are down on the news
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U.S. Dollar Rallies as GBP USD takes Drubbing
February 25th, 2010 at 2:19pmThe U.S. Dollar is trading higher this morning against most major currencies except the Japanese Yen as global sovereign debt and economic issues drive up demand for lower yielding assets. ? The GBP USD is trading sharply lower as the trend accelerated to the downside following a break of recent minor support at 1.5352.? The heavy selling pressure took the Cable down to a major 50% price at 1.5272 where it has found temporary support. The poor outlook for the U.K. economy was
The U.S. Dollar is trading higher this morning against most major currencies except the Japanese Yen as global sovereign debt and economic issues drive up demand for lower yielding assets. ? The GBP USD is trading sharply lower as the trend accelerated to the downside following a break of recent minor support at 1.5352.? The heavy selling pressure took the Cable down to a major 50% price at 1.5272 where it has found temporary support. The poor outlook for the U.K. economy was
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FX Thoughts for the Day
February 25th, 2010 at 12:08pmUSD-CHF @ 1.0841/45...21-Month-MA Resistance holding R: 1.0886 / 1.0925-40 / 1.0980 S: 1.0800 / 1.0750-30 / 1.0700 Swiss is continuing to trade lower below the 21-Month-MA Resistance (currently at 1.0886). Immediate Support is seen at 1.08 which we expect to hold in the US session today. We continue to remain bullish for a rise towards 1.0950 on a break above the 21-Month-MA Resistance in the coming days. On the other hand, a strong break below the immediate Support at 1.08 might see 1.0730-00
USD-CHF @ 1.0841/45...21-Month-MA Resistance holding R: 1.0886 / 1.0925-40 / 1.0980 S: 1.0800 / 1.0750-30 / 1.0700 Swiss is continuing to trade lower below the 21-Month-MA Resistance (currently at 1.0886). Immediate Support is seen at 1.08 which we expect to hold in the US session today. We continue to remain bullish for a rise towards 1.0950 on a break above the 21-Month-MA Resistance in the coming days. On the other hand, a strong break below the immediate Support at 1.08 might see 1.0730-00
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Crude Oil Daily Technical Outlook
February 25th, 2010 at 10:56amNymex Crude Oil (CL) Crude oil continues to stay in tight range below 80.51 today and intraday bias remains neutral for the moment. Deeper retreat to 4 hours 55 EMA (now at 78.12) cannot be ruled out. But after all, rise from 69.50 is in favor to continue as long as 75.69 support holds. Above 80.51 will target a retest on 83.95 high. However, note that Break of 75.69 will argue that rebound from 69.50 has completed and will turn focus back to this low. In the bigger picture, crude oil was
Nymex Crude Oil (CL) Crude oil continues to stay in tight range below 80.51 today and intraday bias remains neutral for the moment. Deeper retreat to 4 hours 55 EMA (now at 78.12) cannot be ruled out. But after all, rise from 69.50 is in favor to continue as long as 75.69 support holds. Above 80.51 will target a retest on 83.95 high. However, note that Break of 75.69 will argue that rebound from 69.50 has completed and will turn focus back to this low. In the bigger picture, crude oil was
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The AUD as wells as the NZD traded weaker against the USD
February 25th, 2010 at 9:52amGood morning from beautiful Hamburg and welcome to our Daily FX Report. Today we expect a lot of interesting economic data regarding Europe’s consumer and business confidence. We wish you successful trades and a nice day. Market review During the early Tokyo trading hours the EUR/JPY fell near to a one-year low on speculation that Greece’s credit rating will be downgraded by Standard & Poor’s by the end of March as a weak economy and political opposition threaten the nation’s ability to
Good morning from beautiful Hamburg and welcome to our Daily FX Report. Today we expect a lot of interesting economic data regarding Europe’s consumer and business confidence. We wish you successful trades and a nice day. Market review During the early Tokyo trading hours the EUR/JPY fell near to a one-year low on speculation that Greece’s credit rating will be downgraded by Standard & Poor’s by the end of March as a weak economy and political opposition threaten the nation’s ability to
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Forex Technical Analysis on Majors
February 25th, 2010 at 9:21amEUR/USD Current level-1.3489 EUR/USD is in a downtrend, after peaking at 1.5146 (Nov.25,2009). Technical indicators are neutral, and trading is situated below the 50- and 200-Day SMA, currently projected at 1.4793 and 1.4169. ?? Yesterday's break below 1.3531 confirmed the corrective nature of the rebound above 1.3497 and the downtrend has been renewed, targeting 1.3061. From an intraday point of view, the pair is in a minor consolidation pattern above 1.3442 low and below 1.3501
EUR/USD Current level-1.3489 EUR/USD is in a downtrend, after peaking at 1.5146 (Nov.25,2009). Technical indicators are neutral, and trading is situated below the 50- and 200-Day SMA, currently projected at 1.4793 and 1.4169. ?? Yesterday's break below 1.3531 confirmed the corrective nature of the rebound above 1.3497 and the downtrend has been renewed, targeting 1.3061. From an intraday point of view, the pair is in a minor consolidation pattern above 1.3442 low and below 1.3501
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Financial Trend Analysis Strategy: Short GBPUSD
February 25th, 2010 at 9:07amThe trading strategies are based exclusively on technical analysis and are short term with a maximum time horizon of 3 to 5 days. The philosophy behind the Today's Trading Signals (TTS) is to take low risk, high return positions with tight stops. That means Financial Trend Analysis (FTA) focus the most on placing the right stops. Every morning FTA reviews the market and the specific strategy, recalculates the risk/reward and then determines the strategy regardless of previous strategy in the
The trading strategies are based exclusively on technical analysis and are short term with a maximum time horizon of 3 to 5 days. The philosophy behind the Today's Trading Signals (TTS) is to take low risk, high return positions with tight stops. That means Financial Trend Analysis (FTA) focus the most on placing the right stops. Every morning FTA reviews the market and the specific strategy, recalculates the risk/reward and then determines the strategy regardless of previous strategy in the
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Technical Summary for Majors
March 8th, 2010 at 3:23pmEUR/USD Remains well supported, following last Friday’s lower rejection at 1.3529. Market tested 1.3700 today, ahead of key 1.3735 resistance. However, market continues to trade within 1.3433/1.3735 consolidation range. Correction reached 1.3625 today, though, risk of failure under 1.3700 persists, seeing scope for lower top, ahead of decline, and under 1.3625 to focus 1.3529. Res: 1.3690, 1.3703, 1.3735, 1.3789 Sup: 1.3625, 1.3590, 1.3550, 1.3529 GBP/USD Continues to trend higher off 1.4780,
EUR/USD Remains well supported, following last Friday’s lower rejection at 1.3529. Market tested 1.3700 today, ahead of key 1.3735 resistance. However, market continues to trade within 1.3433/1.3735 consolidation range. Correction reached 1.3625 today, though, risk of failure under 1.3700 persists, seeing scope for lower top, ahead of decline, and under 1.3625 to focus 1.3529. Res: 1.3690, 1.3703, 1.3735, 1.3789 Sup: 1.3625, 1.3590, 1.3550, 1.3529 GBP/USD Continues to trend higher off 1.4780,
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Currency Majors Technical Perspective
March 8th, 2010 at 2:39pmEUR/USD Current price: 1.3667 Despite hourly indicators seem to be losing bullish momentum, pair remains comfortable above bullish 20 SMA, and attempting to test daily highs just above 1.3710. If manages to hold the area, more upside could be seen during next US session, with 1.3740 as immediate resistance level to watch. 1.3660 now has turned to be first support level to consider. Support levels: 1.3660 1.3630 1.3600 ¨ Resistance levels: 1.3710 1.3740 1.3785 GBP/USD Current price: 1.5164
EUR/USD Current price: 1.3667 Despite hourly indicators seem to be losing bullish momentum, pair remains comfortable above bullish 20 SMA, and attempting to test daily highs just above 1.3710. If manages to hold the area, more upside could be seen during next US session, with 1.3740 as immediate resistance level to watch. 1.3660 now has turned to be first support level to consider. Support levels: 1.3660 1.3630 1.3600 ¨ Resistance levels: 1.3710 1.3740 1.3785 GBP/USD Current price: 1.5164
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U.S. Stocks Firm; Risk Appetite Up in Asia
March 8th, 2010 at 2:25pmU.S. equity markets are expected to open better this morning due to a pick-up in demand for higher yielding assets. Investors are also feeling more confident in the long side following last Friday’s better than expected Non-Farm Payrolls Report. The lack of fresh major economic news until at least Thursday could keep the indices on course for further upside action. The daily March E-mini S&P 500 chart indicates the possibility of a rally to 1156.00 by March 12th. ? June Treasury Bonds
U.S. equity markets are expected to open better this morning due to a pick-up in demand for higher yielding assets. Investors are also feeling more confident in the long side following last Friday’s better than expected Non-Farm Payrolls Report. The lack of fresh major economic news until at least Thursday could keep the indices on course for further upside action. The daily March E-mini S&P 500 chart indicates the possibility of a rally to 1156.00 by March 12th. ? June Treasury Bonds
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Euro Gains Overnight; Risk Appetite Weakens U.S. Dollar
March 8th, 2010 at 2:23pmThe U.S. Dollar is under pressure overnight against most major currencies except the Japanese Yen. Trading has been light and less volatile than last week’s trading conditions. Shortly before the New York session opening, the Dollar is mounting a slight comeback and trading off its lows against a few of its majors. ? The lack of event risk is likely to make the movement of the Dollar the catalyst and market direction driver this week. The first major report is Thursday’s Weekly Jobless
The U.S. Dollar is under pressure overnight against most major currencies except the Japanese Yen. Trading has been light and less volatile than last week’s trading conditions. Shortly before the New York session opening, the Dollar is mounting a slight comeback and trading off its lows against a few of its majors. ? The lack of event risk is likely to make the movement of the Dollar the catalyst and market direction driver this week. The first major report is Thursday’s Weekly Jobless
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Currency Majors Technical Analysis
March 8th, 2010 at 1:16pmEUR/USD - Euro / US Dollar Entry : 1.3665 Stop : 1.3615 Resistances : 1.38 - 1.374 - 1.3705 Supports : 1.3435 - 1.353 - 1.364 USD/CAD - US Dollar / Canadian Dollar Entry : 1.026 Stop : 1.029 Resistances : 1.0335 - 1.031 - 1.029 Supports : 1.02 - 1.023 - 1.026 USD/CHF - US Dollar / Swiss Franc Entry : 1.0705 Stop : 1.074 Resistances : 1.089 - 1.081 - 1.073 Supports : 1.05 - 1.061 - 1.0675 EUR/JPY - Euro / Yen Entry : 123.45 Stop : 122.75 Resistances : 127 - 125.3 - 123.9 Supports : 120.35 -
EUR/USD - Euro / US Dollar Entry : 1.3665 Stop : 1.3615 Resistances : 1.38 - 1.374 - 1.3705 Supports : 1.3435 - 1.353 - 1.364 USD/CAD - US Dollar / Canadian Dollar Entry : 1.026 Stop : 1.029 Resistances : 1.0335 - 1.031 - 1.029 Supports : 1.02 - 1.023 - 1.026 USD/CHF - US Dollar / Swiss Franc Entry : 1.0705 Stop : 1.074 Resistances : 1.089 - 1.081 - 1.073 Supports : 1.05 - 1.061 - 1.0675 EUR/JPY - Euro / Yen Entry : 123.45 Stop : 122.75 Resistances : 127 - 125.3 - 123.9 Supports : 120.35 -
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FX Thoughts for the Day
March 8th, 2010 at 12:47pmFX Thoughts for the day : 08-Mar-2010 - 1246 GMT EURO, JAP YEN and EURO-YEN --------------------------- Read our current comments and trade recommendations on EUR-USD, USD-JPY and EUR-JPY by registering at http://www.kshitij.com/fxthoughts/fxthoughts.shtml#register Our comments on Dollar-Swiss, Sterling Pound and Australian Dollar are given below ------------------------------------------------------------- USD-CHF @ 1.0715...Buy dips R: 1.0727-53 / 1.0767-81 / 1.0854 S: 1.0680 / 1.0647-37 /
FX Thoughts for the day : 08-Mar-2010 - 1246 GMT EURO, JAP YEN and EURO-YEN --------------------------- Read our current comments and trade recommendations on EUR-USD, USD-JPY and EUR-JPY by registering at http://www.kshitij.com/fxthoughts/fxthoughts.shtml#register Our comments on Dollar-Swiss, Sterling Pound and Australian Dollar are given below ------------------------------------------------------------- USD-CHF @ 1.0715...Buy dips R: 1.0727-53 / 1.0767-81 / 1.0854 S: 1.0680 / 1.0647-37 /
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GBPJPY: Recovery To Target 139.23/138.22 Levels
March 8th, 2010 at 11:48amHIGHLIGHTS: GBPJPY: Recovery To Target 139.23/138.22 Levels - Having declined through the 139.23 level, its Nov 26’09 low and the 138.22 level, its Feb 04’10 low to resume GBPJPY GBPJPY: Recovery To Target 139.23/138.22 Levels. GBPJPY -? Having declined through the 139.23 level, its Nov 26’09 low and the 138.22 level, its Feb 04’10 low to resume its medium term downtrend initiated from 163.06(2009 high), GBPJPY is set to retest those levels on a corrective recovery journey after putting
HIGHLIGHTS: GBPJPY: Recovery To Target 139.23/138.22 Levels - Having declined through the 139.23 level, its Nov 26’09 low and the 138.22 level, its Feb 04’10 low to resume GBPJPY GBPJPY: Recovery To Target 139.23/138.22 Levels. GBPJPY -? Having declined through the 139.23 level, its Nov 26’09 low and the 138.22 level, its Feb 04’10 low to resume its medium term downtrend initiated from 163.06(2009 high), GBPJPY is set to retest those levels on a corrective recovery journey after putting
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Weekly Technical Commentary
March 8th, 2010 at 11:02amUSD/JPY Chart Levels: Support 90.00..89.45..89.00..88.00. Resistance 91.00..92.25..92.55..93.25. Likely to remain trapped between ‘channel’ resistance and pivotal support at 88.00 for the rest of this month. Random moves will probably become ever smaller, fading ahead of targets, as the yen looks for intermediate and long term direction. Note that the Lagging Span encounters resistance from the candles starting this week, so we feel that repeated downside testing is more likely than probing
USD/JPY Chart Levels: Support 90.00..89.45..89.00..88.00. Resistance 91.00..92.25..92.55..93.25. Likely to remain trapped between ‘channel’ resistance and pivotal support at 88.00 for the rest of this month. Random moves will probably become ever smaller, fading ahead of targets, as the yen looks for intermediate and long term direction. Note that the Lagging Span encounters resistance from the candles starting this week, so we feel that repeated downside testing is more likely than probing
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The EUR/USD gained for a second day as well
March 8th, 2010 at 10:27amGood morning from snowy Hamburg. The repeatedly experience of cold and snowy weather this weekend has broken all hopes for a coming springtime in Germany. Anyway, we hope you had a great weekend and wish you a successful trading week. Market review The EUR gained against the USD and JPY as expectations climbed that the EU will support Greece. The EUR gained for a second day against the JPY after French President Nicolas Sarkozy said that the Euro region is ready to rescue Greece. The European
Good morning from snowy Hamburg. The repeatedly experience of cold and snowy weather this weekend has broken all hopes for a coming springtime in Germany. Anyway, we hope you had a great weekend and wish you a successful trading week. Market review The EUR gained against the USD and JPY as expectations climbed that the EU will support Greece. The EUR gained for a second day against the JPY after French President Nicolas Sarkozy said that the Euro region is ready to rescue Greece. The European
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Running Higher.....
March 8th, 2010 at 9:45amWhat other expression fits this market but that. We gapped up this morning on a much better than expected employment report. Far less jobs lost than expected, even with the bad weather. This gave some decent futures a bigger bump up and off we ran. First we saw the bears fight some giving the indexes an early black candles but it didn't last long as the bulls took over. The Nasdaq out performed all day but the other major indexes did quite well on their own. When beta leads it's good news for
What other expression fits this market but that. We gapped up this morning on a much better than expected employment report. Far less jobs lost than expected, even with the bad weather. This gave some decent futures a bigger bump up and off we ran. First we saw the bears fight some giving the indexes an early black candles but it didn't last long as the bulls took over. The Nasdaq out performed all day but the other major indexes did quite well on their own. When beta leads it's good news for
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Forex Technical Analysis on Majors
March 8th, 2010 at 9:33amEUR/USD ?Current level-1.3688 EUR/USD is in a downtrend, after peaking at 1.5146 (Nov.25,2009). Technical indicators are neutral, and trading is situated below the 50- and 200-Day SMA, currently projected at 1.4793 and 1.4169. ?? With the recent break above 1.3634 and 1.3690 the positive bias has been renewed and we favor a break beyond 1.3736 to target 1.3850 major resistance. However, an intraday swing is possible to test 1.3612-29 area before breaking upwards.
EUR/USD ?Current level-1.3688 EUR/USD is in a downtrend, after peaking at 1.5146 (Nov.25,2009). Technical indicators are neutral, and trading is situated below the 50- and 200-Day SMA, currently projected at 1.4793 and 1.4169. ?? With the recent break above 1.3634 and 1.3690 the positive bias has been renewed and we favor a break beyond 1.3736 to target 1.3850 major resistance. However, an intraday swing is possible to test 1.3612-29 area before breaking upwards.
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Technical Summary for Majors
March 8th, 2010 at 9:15amEUR/USD Remains well supported, following last Friday’s lower rejection at 1.3529. Market tested 1.3700 today, ahead of key 1.3735 resistance. However, market continues to trade within 1.3433/1.3735 consolidation range. Overbought conditions now see scope for correction, with 1.3625 offering initial support, ahead of 1.3529, loss of which weakens near-term outlook. Early lower rejection, however, returns 1.3700/25 test in focus. Res: 1.3703, 1.3711, 1.3735, 1.3789 Sup: 1.3625, 1.3590, 1.3550,
EUR/USD Remains well supported, following last Friday’s lower rejection at 1.3529. Market tested 1.3700 today, ahead of key 1.3735 resistance. However, market continues to trade within 1.3433/1.3735 consolidation range. Overbought conditions now see scope for correction, with 1.3625 offering initial support, ahead of 1.3529, loss of which weakens near-term outlook. Early lower rejection, however, returns 1.3700/25 test in focus. Res: 1.3703, 1.3711, 1.3735, 1.3789 Sup: 1.3625, 1.3590, 1.3550,
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EUR/GBP, USD/CAD, GBP/JPY Technicals
March 8th, 2010 at 9:14amEUR/GBP March 8, 2010 Current level-0.9003 4 hour chart Longer term bias remains neutral to bullish for the pair, closing above both bearish trendlines confirms some upside for the week ahead. Intraday: The retrace extension was well bid above 0.8980, but shorter timeframes suggests a further dip before resuming the uptrend. Focus on 0.8950 - 0.8900 support.
EUR/GBP March 8, 2010 Current level-0.9003 4 hour chart Longer term bias remains neutral to bullish for the pair, closing above both bearish trendlines confirms some upside for the week ahead. Intraday: The retrace extension was well bid above 0.8980, but shorter timeframes suggests a further dip before resuming the uptrend. Focus on 0.8950 - 0.8900 support.
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Today's Trading Signals
March 8th, 2010 at 8:41amThe trading strategies are based exclusively on technical analysis and are short term with a maximum time horizon of 3 to 5 days. The philosophy behind the Today's Trading Signals (TTS) is to take low risk, high return positions with tight stops. That means Financial Trend Analysis (FTA) focus the most on placing the right stops. Every morning FTA reviews the market and the specific strategy, recalculates the risk/reward and then determines the strategy regardless of previous strategy in the
The trading strategies are based exclusively on technical analysis and are short term with a maximum time horizon of 3 to 5 days. The philosophy behind the Today's Trading Signals (TTS) is to take low risk, high return positions with tight stops. That means Financial Trend Analysis (FTA) focus the most on placing the right stops. Every morning FTA reviews the market and the specific strategy, recalculates the risk/reward and then determines the strategy regardless of previous strategy in the
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CRUDE OIL: Resumes Upside Offensive
March 8th, 2010 at 8:28amHIGHLIGHTS: CRUDE OIL(futures): The commodity reversed its Thursday losses and resumed its nearer term uptrend started off the 69.69 level to print a high of 82.03 on Friday... CRUDE OIL CRUDE OIL: Resumes Upside Offensive CRUDE OIL(futures) - The commodity reversed its Thursday losses and resumed its nearer term uptrend started off the 69.69 level to print a high of 82.03 on Friday. This development has left the commodity eyeing its 2010 high at 83.93 where a break will trigger the resumption
HIGHLIGHTS: CRUDE OIL(futures): The commodity reversed its Thursday losses and resumed its nearer term uptrend started off the 69.69 level to print a high of 82.03 on Friday... CRUDE OIL CRUDE OIL: Resumes Upside Offensive CRUDE OIL(futures) - The commodity reversed its Thursday losses and resumed its nearer term uptrend started off the 69.69 level to print a high of 82.03 on Friday. This development has left the commodity eyeing its 2010 high at 83.93 where a break will trigger the resumption
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Balance between Bulls and Bears in Euro
March 8th, 2010 at 8:18amEUR The pre-planned short positions from key resistance range levels have been implemented with overlap of minimal anticipated target. OsMA trend indicator, having marked formation of bullish reversal sign by strengthening of bullish party activity, suggests preference of buying positions in planning trading operations for today. Hence, we can assume probability of rate return to close border of Ichimoku cloud at 1,3630/50 levels, where it is recommended to evaluate the development of the
EUR The pre-planned short positions from key resistance range levels have been implemented with overlap of minimal anticipated target. OsMA trend indicator, having marked formation of bullish reversal sign by strengthening of bullish party activity, suggests preference of buying positions in planning trading operations for today. Hence, we can assume probability of rate return to close border of Ichimoku cloud at 1,3630/50 levels, where it is recommended to evaluate the development of the
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EURUSD, GBPUSD & USDJPY Support & Resistance Analysis
March 8th, 2010 at 8:04amPivotfarm.com is a provider of Technical Analysis data sheets for traders of various markets. Our data considers some of the most widely followed methodologies including Market Profile, Fibonacci, Volume Analysis, Calculated Pivots and most importantly price based Support and Resistance (S&R). We have combined all these methodologies in a confluence matrix. This allows the trader to determine the strength and importance of an S&R level; based upon the levels other market participants
Pivotfarm.com is a provider of Technical Analysis data sheets for traders of various markets. Our data considers some of the most widely followed methodologies including Market Profile, Fibonacci, Volume Analysis, Calculated Pivots and most importantly price based Support and Resistance (S&R). We have combined all these methodologies in a confluence matrix. This allows the trader to determine the strength and importance of an S&R level; based upon the levels other market participants
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EURUSD has jumped above resistance
March 8th, 2010 at 7:39amBulls recovered from support level back to resistance barrier once again. Despite the recent recovery, neutral situation holds for this pair. Just above resistance level at 1.3795 – strong positive trend can be initiated. At current situation, bulls have more confidence and short term buying options are possible now.
Bulls recovered from support level back to resistance barrier once again. Despite the recent recovery, neutral situation holds for this pair. Just above resistance level at 1.3795 – strong positive trend can be initiated. At current situation, bulls have more confidence and short term buying options are possible now.
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EUR: Attempt small longs at 1.3675
March 8th, 2010 at 7:34amEUR Comment: A third successive ‘spike low’ on the weekly chart, closes still inside the weekly ‘cloud’, weekly ranges between the 50% and 61% Fibonacci retracement support. The Euro is still oversold and almost record open interest suggests this is still probably an ‘overcrowded trade’. We continue to watch for signs of forming an important long term interim low. Strategy: Attempt small longs at 1.3675, adding to 1.3570; stop below 1.3400. Add to longs on a sustained break above 1.3750 for
EUR Comment: A third successive ‘spike low’ on the weekly chart, closes still inside the weekly ‘cloud’, weekly ranges between the 50% and 61% Fibonacci retracement support. The Euro is still oversold and almost record open interest suggests this is still probably an ‘overcrowded trade’. We continue to watch for signs of forming an important long term interim low. Strategy: Attempt small longs at 1.3675, adding to 1.3570; stop below 1.3400. Add to longs on a sustained break above 1.3750 for
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Commodities Gain
March 8th, 2010 at 7:34amDaily Review 8/3/2010 USD Dollar (USD) – The Dollar weakened versus most majors and gained versus the Yen after a smaller than expected decline in Nonfarm Payrolls left investors optimistic. Non Farm Payrolls showed a decrease of -36K versus -40K forecast and Unemployment Rate remained at 9.7%, better than 9.8% expected. NASDAQ and Dow Jones gained by 1.48% and 1.17% respectively, led by financial stocks. Crude Oil gained by 1.61% closing at 81.50$ a barrel. Gold (XAU) gained by 0.19% closing
Daily Review 8/3/2010 USD Dollar (USD) – The Dollar weakened versus most majors and gained versus the Yen after a smaller than expected decline in Nonfarm Payrolls left investors optimistic. Non Farm Payrolls showed a decrease of -36K versus -40K forecast and Unemployment Rate remained at 9.7%, better than 9.8% expected. NASDAQ and Dow Jones gained by 1.48% and 1.17% respectively, led by financial stocks. Crude Oil gained by 1.61% closing at 81.50$ a barrel. Gold (XAU) gained by 0.19% closing
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Currency Majors Technical Perspective
March 8th, 2010 at 7:06amEURUSD Current price: 1.3672
EURUSD Current price: 1.3672
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EUR/USD: (1.3675) Rebound retested 1.3693
March 8th, 2010 at 6:38amRetested 1.3443 and scored a minor new year low, with pair currently back in the daily channel off Dec high (bottom at 1.3367 today), with 1.3693 having been retested: Support area at 1.3625 (today’s low? + daily Bollinger midline), with next levels at 1.3593 (daily Medium Term Moving Average?), ahead of 1.3555/ .3545 (daily envelope bottom/ reaction low hourly), where pause favored. If wrong, next levels at 1.3510 (break-up hourly), ahead of 1.3473 (daily Bollinger bottom) and 1.3441/ .3433
Retested 1.3443 and scored a minor new year low, with pair currently back in the daily channel off Dec high (bottom at 1.3367 today), with 1.3693 having been retested: Support area at 1.3625 (today’s low? + daily Bollinger midline), with next levels at 1.3593 (daily Medium Term Moving Average?), ahead of 1.3555/ .3545 (daily envelope bottom/ reaction low hourly), where pause favored. If wrong, next levels at 1.3510 (break-up hourly), ahead of 1.3473 (daily Bollinger bottom) and 1.3441/ .3433
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Currency Majors Technical Analysis
March 8th, 2010 at 6:33amEUR/USD - Euro / US Dollar Entry : 1.3675 Stop : 1.3645 Resistances : 1.379 - 1.3735 - 1.37 Supports : 1.3445 - 1.3545 - 1.3635 USD/CHF - US Dollar / Swiss Franc Entry : 1.07 Stop : 1.073 Resistances : 1.0895 - 1.081 - 1.0755 Supports : 1.05 - 1.0605 - 1.065 USD/JPY - US Dollar / Yen Entry : 90.45 Stop : 90.15 Resistances : 92.15 - 91.45 - 90.7 Supports : 88.75 - 89.5 - 90 EUR/JPY - Euro / Yen Entry : 123.6 Stop : 123 Resistances : 127.05 - 125.25 - 123.9 Supports : 119.9 - 121.55 - 122.85
EUR/USD - Euro / US Dollar Entry : 1.3675 Stop : 1.3645 Resistances : 1.379 - 1.3735 - 1.37 Supports : 1.3445 - 1.3545 - 1.3635 USD/CHF - US Dollar / Swiss Franc Entry : 1.07 Stop : 1.073 Resistances : 1.0895 - 1.081 - 1.0755 Supports : 1.05 - 1.0605 - 1.065 USD/JPY - US Dollar / Yen Entry : 90.45 Stop : 90.15 Resistances : 92.15 - 91.45 - 90.7 Supports : 88.75 - 89.5 - 90 EUR/JPY - Euro / Yen Entry : 123.6 Stop : 123 Resistances : 127.05 - 125.25 - 123.9 Supports : 119.9 - 121.55 - 122.85
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Daily Forex and Dow Jones Recommended Levels
March 8th, 2010 at 3:49amSeveral words about the EUR/USD future. Resistance (daily close) : ?1.3182, 1.3364, 1.3590 and 1.3778. After that 1.3958, 1.4186 and 1.4400. Break of the latter will give ?1.4490, 1.4692 ? 1.4884. Then 1.5117, 1.5386 , 1.5592 ? 1.5660. Break of 1.5660 would lead to ?1.5865, 1.7280 ? 1.9430 (published on 23.10.2008) . Support (daily close) : 1.2610, 1.2428 and 1.2246. Then 1.2128, 1.1970, 1.1838 and 1.1700. Break of the latter would give 1.1533, 1.1352 and 1.1181 (published ? n
Several words about the EUR/USD future. Resistance (daily close) : ?1.3182, 1.3364, 1.3590 and 1.3778. After that 1.3958, 1.4186 and 1.4400. Break of the latter will give ?1.4490, 1.4692 ? 1.4884. Then 1.5117, 1.5386 , 1.5592 ? 1.5660. Break of 1.5660 would lead to ?1.5865, 1.7280 ? 1.9430 (published on 23.10.2008) . Support (daily close) : 1.2610, 1.2428 and 1.2246. Then 1.2128, 1.1970, 1.1838 and 1.1700. Break of the latter would give 1.1533, 1.1352 and 1.1181 (published ? n
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EURUSD is forming sideways movement between 1.3435 and 1.3838
March 8th, 2010 at 2:26amEURUSD is forming a sideways movement in a range between 1.3435 and 1.3838. Another rise towards 1.3838 is expected later today. As long as this level holds, the price action in the trading range is treated as consolidation of downtrend from 1.4579 and one more fall to 1.3300 is still possible after consolidation. However, a break above 1.3838 resistance will indicate that the fall from 1.4579 has completed at 1.3435 already.
EURUSD is forming a sideways movement in a range between 1.3435 and 1.3838. Another rise towards 1.3838 is expected later today. As long as this level holds, the price action in the trading range is treated as consolidation of downtrend from 1.4579 and one more fall to 1.3300 is still possible after consolidation. However, a break above 1.3838 resistance will indicate that the fall from 1.4579 has completed at 1.3435 already.
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Yen-crosses
March 8th, 2010 at 1:47am?? Last Friday, I took a look at the Yen-crosses. It was noted that the Euro and Sterling are the weakest against the Japanese currency, and that the commodity currencies had a change to fade yen-strength as they have been strong. The USD/JPY has been weak, BUT is already at a major low, so the greenback also had a chance to bounce back against the yen. Let’s take a look at how this week panned out.
?? Last Friday, I took a look at the Yen-crosses. It was noted that the Euro and Sterling are the weakest against the Japanese currency, and that the commodity currencies had a change to fade yen-strength as they have been strong. The USD/JPY has been weak, BUT is already at a major low, so the greenback also had a chance to bounce back against the yen. Let’s take a look at how this week panned out.
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Commodity Currencies Take the Week
March 8th, 2010 at 1:45amCommodity Currencies Take the Week Two weeks ago, the Greenback was the top performer, followed by the Japanese yen. Then, the Japanese yen we the highlight of last week. This week, the rotation comes to the commodity currencies such as the Loonie and the? Aussie. Let’s take a look. EUR/USD Awaiting Breakout from Consolidation I was correct to update last week that the bullish attempt on Friday was not to be considered a bullish signal. Instead the market did indeed retest the 1.3450
Commodity Currencies Take the Week Two weeks ago, the Greenback was the top performer, followed by the Japanese yen. Then, the Japanese yen we the highlight of last week. This week, the rotation comes to the commodity currencies such as the Loonie and the? Aussie. Let’s take a look. EUR/USD Awaiting Breakout from Consolidation I was correct to update last week that the bullish attempt on Friday was not to be considered a bullish signal. Instead the market did indeed retest the 1.3450
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Currency Majors Technical Perspective
March 7th, 2010 at 10:48pmEUR/USD Current price: 1.3634 Starting the week slightly bullish according to hourly charts, pair has benefited past Friday’s NFP employment report, triggered a return of risk appetite across the board, renewing investors' confidence in the global economy recovery. Local share markets had a positive cue from Wall Street strong gains, with both S&P and DJIA at 6-week high. Technically, pair bullish momentum looks limited by 1.3640 static resistance area first, ahead of stronger 1.3700 zone.
EUR/USD Current price: 1.3634 Starting the week slightly bullish according to hourly charts, pair has benefited past Friday’s NFP employment report, triggered a return of risk appetite across the board, renewing investors' confidence in the global economy recovery. Local share markets had a positive cue from Wall Street strong gains, with both S&P and DJIA at 6-week high. Technically, pair bullish momentum looks limited by 1.3640 static resistance area first, ahead of stronger 1.3700 zone.
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Week 10 0f 2010 (Mar 08 – Mar 12)
March 7th, 2010 at 2:47pmGBPUSD GBPUSD managed to break above 1.5000 level last week and this upward move seems to extend towards 1.5350 level and there it will be touching the top of downward channel’s top. It seems that GBPUSD might look to resume downward move from 1.5350 level and that will be a very ideal level for traders to sell GBPUSD for targets below 1.5000 level. If GBPUSD manages to break above 1.5350 level, then a long term upward move might seen which will initially head towards 1.5700 level without
GBPUSD GBPUSD managed to break above 1.5000 level last week and this upward move seems to extend towards 1.5350 level and there it will be touching the top of downward channel’s top. It seems that GBPUSD might look to resume downward move from 1.5350 level and that will be a very ideal level for traders to sell GBPUSD for targets below 1.5000 level. If GBPUSD manages to break above 1.5350 level, then a long term upward move might seen which will initially head towards 1.5700 level without
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EURUSD looking to resume trend
March 7th, 2010 at 2:43pmEURUSD (1.3620) EURUSD is currently being traded in a sideways range and it was also due to the reason that EURUSD had a very low RSI value. Now it might once again look to set itself up for a dip towards 1.3500 level. Currently a good resistance can be seen just around 1.3655 level and aggressive traders might to look to sell EURUSD around that level. If EURUSD breaks above 1.3655 level, then the next good resistance can be seen just around 1.3785 level and long term traders will surely look
EURUSD (1.3620) EURUSD is currently being traded in a sideways range and it was also due to the reason that EURUSD had a very low RSI value. Now it might once again look to set itself up for a dip towards 1.3500 level. Currently a good resistance can be seen just around 1.3655 level and aggressive traders might to look to sell EURUSD around that level. If EURUSD breaks above 1.3655 level, then the next good resistance can be seen just around 1.3785 level and long term traders will surely look
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Gold Weekly Technical Outlook
March 6th, 2010 at 8:56pmComex Gold (GC) Gold rose further to as high as 1145.8 last week but turned sideway since then. Initial bias is neutral this week and some more consolidations could be seen. But after all, rise from 1044.5 is in favor to continue as long as 1088.5 support holds. Above 1145.8 will target 1163 resistance next. Also, note that whole correction from 1227.5 might have completed with three waves down to 1044.5 already. Break of 1163 will confirm this case and bring retest of 1227.5 high. In the
Comex Gold (GC) Gold rose further to as high as 1145.8 last week but turned sideway since then. Initial bias is neutral this week and some more consolidations could be seen. But after all, rise from 1044.5 is in favor to continue as long as 1088.5 support holds. Above 1145.8 will target 1163 resistance next. Also, note that whole correction from 1227.5 might have completed with three waves down to 1044.5 already. Break of 1163 will confirm this case and bring retest of 1227.5 high. In the
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GBPUSD stays below a falling trend line
March 6th, 2010 at 4:56amGBPUSD stays below a falling trend line on daily chart and remains in downtrend from 1.6456. As long as the trend line resistance holds, downtrend could be expected to continue and deeper decline to 1.4600 area is possible. However, next cycle bottom on daily chart is nearing, a clear break above the trend line resistance could indicate that a cycle bottom has been formed and the fall from 1.6456 has completed. For long term analysis, GBPUSD is in bearish movement from 1.7042. Move to 1.4500
GBPUSD stays below a falling trend line on daily chart and remains in downtrend from 1.6456. As long as the trend line resistance holds, downtrend could be expected to continue and deeper decline to 1.4600 area is possible. However, next cycle bottom on daily chart is nearing, a clear break above the trend line resistance could indicate that a cycle bottom has been formed and the fall from 1.6456 has completed. For long term analysis, GBPUSD is in bearish movement from 1.7042. Move to 1.4500
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EUR USD Rallies as Greek Budget Passes
March 5th, 2010 at 11:59pmThe EUR USD finished the day higher after the Greek parliament approve a package of budget cuts and tax increases. These financial reforms prompted Greece’s prime minister to state that it wouldn’t need aid from other European Union members. This was probably a response to reports from earlier in the week suggesting that Germany and France stood ready to provide aid to the struggling nation.? At one point this week, Greece was even willing to seek aid from the International Monetary Fund.
The EUR USD finished the day higher after the Greek parliament approve a package of budget cuts and tax increases. These financial reforms prompted Greece’s prime minister to state that it wouldn’t need aid from other European Union members. This was probably a response to reports from earlier in the week suggesting that Germany and France stood ready to provide aid to the struggling nation.? At one point this week, Greece was even willing to seek aid from the International Monetary Fund.
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EUR USD Rallies as Greek Budget Passes
March 5th, 2010 at 11:57pmThe EUR USD finished the day higher after the Greek parliament approve a package of budget cuts and tax increases. These financial reforms prompted Greece’s prime minister to state that it wouldn’t need aid from other European Union members. This was probably a response to reports from earlier in the week suggesting that Germany and France stood ready to provide aid to the struggling nation.? At one point this week, Greece was even willing to seek aid from the International Monetary Fund.
The EUR USD finished the day higher after the Greek parliament approve a package of budget cuts and tax increases. These financial reforms prompted Greece’s prime minister to state that it wouldn’t need aid from other European Union members. This was probably a response to reports from earlier in the week suggesting that Germany and France stood ready to provide aid to the struggling nation.? At one point this week, Greece was even willing to seek aid from the International Monetary Fund.
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Stocks Soar; Better Jobs Report Drives Up Demand for Higher Risk
March 5th, 2010 at 8:07pmU.S. equity markets are trading sharply higher following the release of better than expected U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls Report. Investors are driving up stock prices on the belief that the jobs data indicates an improving economy. Technically, the daily swing chart indicates a possible move in the March E-mini S&P 500 to 1156.00 by March 12th. June Treasury Bonds fell after the better than expected jobs reports signaled that the economy was improving, bringing the Fed closer to hiking interest
U.S. equity markets are trading sharply higher following the release of better than expected U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls Report. Investors are driving up stock prices on the belief that the jobs data indicates an improving economy. Technically, the daily swing chart indicates a possible move in the March E-mini S&P 500 to 1156.00 by March 12th. June Treasury Bonds fell after the better than expected jobs reports signaled that the economy was improving, bringing the Fed closer to hiking interest
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Dollar Trading Lower against Most Majors
March 5th, 2010 at 8:06pmThe U.S. Dollar is trading lower against most major currencies after better-than-expected jobs data drove investors into higher yielding assets. The initial move in the Dollar was up after the U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls Report showed fewer jobs were lost than estimated. Traders bought the Dollar on the belief that the better jobs number would move the Fed closer to hiking interest rates. Higher interest rates would make U.S. investments relatively more attractive. This move was short-lived however
The U.S. Dollar is trading lower against most major currencies after better-than-expected jobs data drove investors into higher yielding assets. The initial move in the Dollar was up after the U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls Report showed fewer jobs were lost than estimated. Traders bought the Dollar on the belief that the better jobs number would move the Fed closer to hiking interest rates. Higher interest rates would make U.S. investments relatively more attractive. This move was short-lived however
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Comprehensive FX and Futures Daily Commentary
March 5th, 2010 at 4:30pmDaily Market Commentary EUR/USD Dips in Reaction to U.S. Data The EUR/USD is heading lower in the wake of stronger than expected U.S. employment data. The Non-Farm Employment Change came in at -36k, 20k above expectations. Additionally, the headline Unemployment Rate held steady at 9.7% while analysts were expecting a basis point increase to 9.8%. The initial reaction was a Dollar positive since improvements in U.S. employment stokes speculation that the Fed could tighten sooner rather than
Daily Market Commentary EUR/USD Dips in Reaction to U.S. Data The EUR/USD is heading lower in the wake of stronger than expected U.S. employment data. The Non-Farm Employment Change came in at -36k, 20k above expectations. Additionally, the headline Unemployment Rate held steady at 9.7% while analysts were expecting a basis point increase to 9.8%. The initial reaction was a Dollar positive since improvements in U.S. employment stokes speculation that the Fed could tighten sooner rather than
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Chart of the Day – EUR/USD
March 5th, 2010 at 4:17pm(Chart courtesy of FX Solutions' FX AccuCharts. Price on 1st pane, Slow Stochastics on 2nd pane; horizontal support/resistance levels in yellow; uptrend lines in green; downtrend lines in red; chart patterns in white; 50-period simple moving average in light blue.) 3/05/2010 – EUR/USD – Price action on EUR/USD, a daily chart of which is shown, continues to languish in consolidation despite a false upside breakout above the top (around 1.3700) of the current short-term trading range earlier in
(Chart courtesy of FX Solutions' FX AccuCharts. Price on 1st pane, Slow Stochastics on 2nd pane; horizontal support/resistance levels in yellow; uptrend lines in green; downtrend lines in red; chart patterns in white; 50-period simple moving average in light blue.) 3/05/2010 – EUR/USD – Price action on EUR/USD, a daily chart of which is shown, continues to languish in consolidation despite a false upside breakout above the top (around 1.3700) of the current short-term trading range earlier in
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Stocks Trading Mixed Ahead of Weekly Jobless Claims
March 5th, 2010 at 3:27pmU.S. equity markets are trading higher ahead of this morning’s U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls Report. Appetite for risk is up overnight which could spillover to the U.S. markets if the jobs number shows that the economy is improving. ? June Treasury Bonds are trading slightly lower. Holding 117’23 is the key to sustaining the rally in this market. The next upside target is 118’17.? A break back under 117’23 could trigger a sharp break to 116’04. Today’s jobs report will move this market. If
U.S. equity markets are trading higher ahead of this morning’s U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls Report. Appetite for risk is up overnight which could spillover to the U.S. markets if the jobs number shows that the economy is improving. ? June Treasury Bonds are trading slightly lower. Holding 117’23 is the key to sustaining the rally in this market. The next upside target is 118’17.? A break back under 117’23 could trigger a sharp break to 116’04. Today’s jobs report will move this market. If
704f6ade88aea2e07147981dca304241
Dollar Mixed on Light Trading Ahead of U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls
March 5th, 2010 at 3:25pmThe U.S. Dollar is trading mixed overnight ahead of this morning’s Non-Farm Payrolls Report. Demand for risky assets is up overnight putting pressure on lower yielding currencies. Traders are looking for a loss of about 50,000 jobs. This guess is higher than last month’s actual loss of 20,000 jobs. The unemployment rate is expected to rise from 9.7% to 9.8%. A greater than expected jobs loss is likely to drive traders into the Dollar as this would indicate that the economy is weakening.
The U.S. Dollar is trading mixed overnight ahead of this morning’s Non-Farm Payrolls Report. Demand for risky assets is up overnight putting pressure on lower yielding currencies. Traders are looking for a loss of about 50,000 jobs. This guess is higher than last month’s actual loss of 20,000 jobs. The unemployment rate is expected to rise from 9.7% to 9.8%. A greater than expected jobs loss is likely to drive traders into the Dollar as this would indicate that the economy is weakening.
704f6ade88aea2e07147981dca304241
Stocks under Pressure as Investors Shed Risky Assets
March 9th, 2010 at 2:46pmThe lack of major economic reports today means the direction of the Dollar is likely to exert more influence on the U.S. equity markets. With the Dollar up overnight because of risk aversion, traders are selling equities. Yesterday’s tight trading range and lack of follow-through during the New York session may have been indications that the stock markets are overbought. The daily March E-mini S&P chart suggests that a break through 1128.75 may accelerate the move to the downside. ?
The lack of major economic reports today means the direction of the Dollar is likely to exert more influence on the U.S. equity markets. With the Dollar up overnight because of risk aversion, traders are selling equities. Yesterday’s tight trading range and lack of follow-through during the New York session may have been indications that the stock markets are overbought. The daily March E-mini S&P chart suggests that a break through 1128.75 may accelerate the move to the downside. ?
704f6ade88aea2e07147981dca304241
Technical Summary for Majors
March 9th, 2010 at 2:43pmEUR/USD Extends decline, after an upside attempt stalled at 1.3703 yesterday, to reach 1.3536 low thus far, just ahead of 1.3529, last Friday’s low, break of which will re-focus 1.3433 key support. However, the pair remains in a 1.3433/1.3735 range, with break of either side to establish the direction. Res: 1.3605, 1.3640, 1.3690, 1.3703 Sup: 1.3529, 1.3485, 1.3443, 1.3433 GBP/USD Yesterday’s rejection at 1.5194 has signaled the completion of the first corrective leg off 1.4780 low, with
EUR/USD Extends decline, after an upside attempt stalled at 1.3703 yesterday, to reach 1.3536 low thus far, just ahead of 1.3529, last Friday’s low, break of which will re-focus 1.3433 key support. However, the pair remains in a 1.3433/1.3735 range, with break of either side to establish the direction. Res: 1.3605, 1.3640, 1.3690, 1.3703 Sup: 1.3529, 1.3485, 1.3443, 1.3433 GBP/USD Yesterday’s rejection at 1.5194 has signaled the completion of the first corrective leg off 1.4780 low, with
704f6ade88aea2e07147981dca304241
Forex Traders Turn against Risk; U.S. Dollar Up versus Most Majors
March 9th, 2010 at 2:40pmThe U.S. Dollar is trading higher this morning against most major currencies except the Japanese Yen as traders have turned against risk and are seeking shelter in lower yielding assets. The overnight strength in the Dollar is being attributed to heavy selling pressure on the Euro and British Pound. ? The Euro is down as traders are taking a more cautious view of the Euro Region economy now that the fiscal problems in Greece have subsided. Traders are citing the possibility of an uneven